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FM PEKING 150639Z MAY 81
PRIORITY FCO
04011
TELEGRAM NUMBER 356 OF 15 MAY
2
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Me Dorrice Magand M/s Mauren (FGD)
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INFO PRIORITY HONG KONG (PERSONAL FOR GOVERNOR)
FOR YOUDE
1
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ENCLOSURE TO THE GOVERNOR'S LETTER OF 5 MAY: FUTURE OF HONG KONG
1. I THINK THIS A USEFUL PAPER AND HAVE NO MAJOR DIFFICULTIES
WITH IT.
2
HAUD 15/5
2. PARAGRAPH 3 ON THE CHINESE VIEW SHOULD BEGIN WITH THE REMINDER THAT THE FULL CHINESE POSITION REMAINS CONJECTURAL, THOUGH CERTAIN ELEMENTS SEEM CLEAR. THE PARAGRAPH SHOULD BRING OUT THE
EXTREME POLITICAL DIFFICULTIES FOR CHINA OF PERMITTING THE PRESENT
STATUS TO CONTINUE BEYOND 1997. FOR THIS REASON, ALTHOUGH TECHNICALLY "IT IS OPEN TO THEM TO DISREGARD 1997'', IN PRACTICE AND ALSO BECAUSE OF THE PUBLIC ATTENTION FOCUSSED ON
THAT DATE, THEY COULD NOT RISK DOING SO WITHOUT A MAJOR POLITICAL CONCESSION ON OUR PART. THE REFERENCE TO TAIWAN ALSO COMES IN AT THIS POINT AND SHOULD BE EXPLAINED, IE THE CHINESE CAN AFFORD TO DO NOTHING OVER HONG KONG THAT WOULD, AS THEY SEE IT, MAKE THE RECOVERY OF TAIWAN MORE DIFFICULT. THE PARAGRAPH SHOULD ALSO MENTION THE IGNORANCE AND MISUNDERSTANDING OF THE HONG KONG SYSTEM AND PROBLEM PREVALENT EVEN AMONG CHINESE OFFICIALS WHO SHOULD BE WELL INFORMED, EG NCNA.
3. PARAGRAPH 6 LAST SENTENCE AND PARAGRAPH 7 REPRESENT A CHANGE IN THE HONG KONG ASSESSMENT. UNTIL RECENTLY IT WAS ARGUED THAT
VALIDATION OF LEASES GOING BEYOND 1997 MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO HOLD THE SITUATION FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS. I ASSUME WE ARE CLEAR THAT PARAGRAPHS 6 AND 7 ARE NOW THE IRREDUCIBLE MINIMUM IN OUR REQUIREMENTS. THIS WILL OF COURSE MAKE NEGOTIATION OF A COMPROMISE HARDER. IT WILL ALSO HAVE THE EFFECT OF MERGING THE IMMEDIATE AND LONGER TERM PROBLEM.
4. PARAGRAPH 8. OPTION B WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR THE CHINESE UNLESS COUPLED WITH A CONCESSION ON SOVEREIGNTY, SINCE IT WOULD IMPLY CONTINUING WITH THE PRESENT STATE OF AFFAIRS BEYOND 1997.
5. OPTION C WOULD ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR THE CHINESE WITHOUT THE CONCESSION ON SOVEREIGNTY. AS THE PAPER RECOGNISES, THERE WOULD BE THE FURTHER PROBLEM FOR THE CHINESE IN COMMITTING THEY- SELVES TO A SPECIFIC PERIOD OF NOTICE.