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HUCK 040
FM PEKING 15063AZ MAY 81
TO PRIORITY FCO
TELEGRAM NUMBER 356 OF 15 MAY
RECEIVED SY
02 JUL 1981
INFO PRIORITY HONG KONG (PERSONAL FOR GOVERNOR)
INDEX
9.51
VANISTRY
Taken
FOR YOUDE
(26)A
fee (131
дея
f
126
केली 101217
ENCLOSURE TO THE GOVERNOR'S LETTER OF 5 MAY: FUTURE OF HONG KONG
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1. I THINK THIS A USEFUL PAPER AND HAVE NO MAJOR DIFFICULTIES
WITH IT.
2. PARAGRAPH 3 ON THE CHINESE VIEW SHOULD BEGIN WITH THE REMINDER THAT THE FULL CHINESE POSITION REMAINS CONJECTURAL, THOUGH
CERTAIN ELEMENTS SEEM CLEAR. THE PARAGRAPH SHOULD BRING OUT THE
EXTREME POLITICAL DIFFICULTIES FOR CHINA OF PERMITTING THE PRESENT
STATUS TO CONTINUE BEYOND 1997. FOR THIS REASON, ALTHOUGH TECHNICALLY "IT IS OPEN TO THEM TO DISREGARD 1997'', IN
PRACTICE AND ALSO BECAUSE OF THE PUBLIC ATTENTION FOCUSSED ON
THAT DATE, THEY COULD NOT RISK DOING SO WITHOUT A MAJOR POLITICAL
CONCESSION ON OUR PART. THE REFERENCE TO TAIWAN ALSO COMES IN AT
THIS POINT AND SHOULD BE EXPLAINED, IE THE CHINESE CAN AFFORD TO DO NOTHING OVER HONG KONG THAT WOULD, AS THEY SEE IT, MAKE THE RECOVERY OF TAIWAN MORE DIFFICULT. THE PARAGRAPH SHOULD ALSO MENTION
THE IGNORANCE AND MISUNDERSTANDING OF THE HONG KONG SYSTEM AND PROBLEM PREVALENT EVEN AMONG CHINESE OFFICIALS WHO SHOULD BE WELL INFORMED, EG NCNA.
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3. PARAGRAPH 6 LAST SENTENCE AND PARAGRAPH 7 REPRESENT A CHANGE IN
THE HONG KONG ASSESSMENT. UNTIL RECENTLY IT WAS ARGUED THAT
VALIDATION OF LEASES GOING BEYOND 1997 MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO
HOLD THE SITUATION FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS. I ASSUME WE ARE CLEAR
THAT PARAGRAPHS 6 AND 7 ARE NOW THE IRREDUCIBLE MINIMUM IN OUR REQUIREMENTS. THIS WILL OF COURSE MAKE NEGOTIATION OF A COMPRO 41 SE HARDER. IT WILL ALSO HAVE THE EFFECT OF MERGING THE IMMEDIATE AND LONGER TERM PROBLEM.
4. PARAGRAPH 8. OPTION B WOULD BE DIFFICULT FOR THE CHINESE UNLESS COUPLED WITH A CONCESSION ON SOVEREIGNTY, SINCE IT WOULD IMPLY CONTINUING WITH THE PRESENT STATE OF AFFAIRS BEYOND 1997.
5. OPTION C WOULD ALSO BE DIFFICULT FOR THE CHINESE WITHOUT THE CONCESSION ON SOVEREIGNTY. AS THE PAPER RECOGNISES, THERE WOULD BE THE FURTHER PROBLEM FOR THE CHINESE IN COMMITTING THEM- SELVES TO A SPECIFIC PERIOD OF NOTICE.
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