(iii) Effect. Major boost to confidence.
Sufficient to halt slide of confidence. But only provided it was quickly followed by change in 1898 Order in Council to bring British powers of jurisdiction and administration into line with new concept of validity of 15 years constantly rolled forward until notice given by CPG. The legal
mechanics would need to be worked out.
Joint or parallel statements by Chinese and HMG that
treaties no longer applicable; Hong Kong Chinese territory temporarily under British administration
(i)
Likelihood.
About same for the Chinese
as C, but might be easier because there is no time limit, and it generally accords with present Chinese position, and involves a public renunciation by HMG.
(ii) Problems for HMG. Not so good as C. Implications of abrogation. No guarantee of length of tenure as in C. Legal status of Hong Kong, particularly in international agreements, would need to be clarified. Need for legislation on land leases and continuing powers of administration which would have to be of indeterminate length. (Automatically renewable periodic leases possible.) Might be coupled with demand for use of Chinese flag (cf. policy towards Taiwan).
(iii) Effect. Impact would depend on assumptions about how long the arrangement was expected to last. Initial effect might be to produce uncertainty, unless Chinese made it clear that they expected the arrangement to last at least 15 years. But confidence would grow over time, as it would be up to the Chinese
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