ined 026/14.
RECEIVED
DES
30 JUN1981
CONFIDENTIAL
NO. 51
REGISTRY
Mr Mallabyx, Planning Staffken
Vaya
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Mr. Williansen J29.6
In het
OVERSEAS TRAVEL BY THE PRIME MINISTER IN 1982
I strongly
1.
Your circular minute of 22 June refers. endorse your view that a Far East trip should be the main priority for 1982. The reasons for visiting China are those summarised in your minute. However if the Prime Minister is to visit China it is essential (for obvious reasons) that she should go to Hong Kong as well. There is also a strong case for including Japan in the itinerary. The last British Prime Minister to visit Japan was Mr Heath in 1972. His visit was returned by Mr Tanaka in 1973. Mr Suzuki has just been here so it is our Prime Minister's turn to go to Japan. Given the increasing political importance of Japan and the seriousness of the economic problems it would be right for Mrs Thatcher to go there before too long. The trip to China and Hong Kong provides the opportunity. It should be possible to fit visits
to all 3 into the 16-29 September slot.
2.
There is one further consideration which should be borne in mind. When the Prime Minister goes to China people in Hong Kong will expect her to discuss the future of the territory and to achieve results which represent a substantial improvement on the 'hearts at ease' assurances which Deng Xiaoping has so far given. Failure to achieve such results could have an adverse effect on confidence. The Governor of Hong Kong thinks it unlikely that the Chinese will be ready for serious discussion about the future of the territory as early as September 1982 and from that point of view would prefer the visit to be delayed until 1983. But he recognises that circumstances might not have changed materially by 1983 and that a policy of delaying the Prime Minister's visit to China until the Chinese are ready for substantive discussions about Hong Kong could in practice me an indefinite postponement, with consequences for the planned State Visit (? 1984) and for Sino-British relations more generally. Against this background he would not wish to argue that the visit to China should be postponed beyond September 1982, but he would like Ministers to be made aware that a visit at that time will inevitably give rise to expectations in Hong Kong that the future is to be settled; that these expectations could well be disappointed;
and that the situation will require careful handling.
3.
agrees.
I have discussed the above with Mr Clift (HKGD) who
Ruangwen
RJT McLaren
Far Eastern Department
25 June 1981
copied to: Mr Donald
Mr Clift, HKGD
CONFIDENTIAL