IRAN/IRAQ
CONFIDENTIAL
General
8. The war is in its tenth month and it has now developed into a conflict of attrition. Since the end of 1980, the fighting has been waged at a low level of activity. Despite better equipped and better organised armed forces, Iraq is unlikely to achieve victory over Iran. The war could drag on for months unless both sides are prepared to compromise and agree to negotiate their differences. Both belligerents are probably now ready to stop the fighting if some face saving formula can be found to resolve their differences. The key issue in the dispute is sovereignty over the Shatt Al Arab waterway. In the coming months, both may come under pressure for different reasons to end the war. Equally, attitudes could harden as one or other believes that internal pressures are working to the other's advantage and that time is on their side.
UK Attitude
Any
9. The continuing conflict is a matter of concern to us. escalation or spread of the fighting could pose a threat to the stability of the whole region. We continue to believe that the West has no role to play and let a broadly neutral stance reduce the risk of giving the Soviet Union the pretext to exploit the war to its advantage. Although the Non-Aligned Movement, the Islamic Conference and the UN Secretary General's special representative, Mr Olaf Palme, continue their efforts at mediation, the prospects of their achieving an early breakthrough remain bleak.
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