September 1981 but this could well slip. The conflicts in
and the continuing failure to
Guatemala and El Salvador
P
reach a settlement of the Guatemala/Belize dispute
had all,
in their different ways, had the effect of making independence
a divisive subject. There was now a risk of independence being
delayed and of communist influence gaining ground. Progress
had however recently been made on the question of defence after
independence; it was now proposed that British forces should
remain 'for a reasonable period' after independence, by which
time the effectiveness of local forces would have been improved
and Belize would have its own supporters in the UN and in the
region. The key to the future lay in reaching a settlement of
+
the Guatemala dispute and of obtaining US support of an
independent Belize. There was a rough year ahead but there
was still hope.
c) BVI
5.
Unlike Belize, BVI's problems were largely of the parish
pump variety. Security was good, though there was always the
risk of a sudden blow-up. The economy was set fair with tourism,
financial centre operations and the prospect of off-shore oil.
There could be political pressure for control of the civil service
and the police, though control of at least the latter would
not be surrendered by HMG in advance of independence.
Independence in a decade was possible; a perpetual commitment to
dependent status was not welcome to HMG.
d) Caymans
6.
On the political and constitutional front, the November 1980
elections had resulted, for the first time, in two political
/groupings
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PERSONAL AND CONFIDENTIAL