GF 323
CONFIDENTIAL
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Appendix A
Evasion Ratios estimated by C & S Department
(1)
No. of IIS (direct
from China)
Month/yr. arrested
(2)
No. of IIS
(from China
& Macao)
(3) Evader
**
Current Estimates*
Previous Estimates
Ratio A (1):(3)
Ratio B (2):(3)
(4) Evader
Ratio A Ratio B (1):(4) (2):(4)
arrested
July 1980
8 619
8 684
8 902
1:1.0
1:1.0
8 910
1:1.0 1:1.0
Aug 1980
12 686
12 742
11 250
1:0.9
1:0.9
10 916
1:0.9 1:0.9
Sep 1980
13 365
13 454
9 644
1:0.7
1:0.7
* Estimates made based on up-to-date surfacing data
** Estimates made in the last month based on surfacing data available then.
The calculations of the estimate for Sept. 1980 are as follows:
2.
No. of IIs. from China arrested
13 365
Total no. of IIs arrested
13 454
No. of IIs who registered/will register with ROP
in 1st month of arrival
7434
in 2nd month of arrival
975*
in 3rd month of arrival
32*
after 3 months of arrival
239*
Estimated no. of IIs who will never register
964
Estimated total no. of successful IIs
9644
Evasion Ratio A
1:0.7
Evasion Ratio B
1:0.7
* Estimates
CONFIDENTIAL ##
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