Social Welfare
SECRET
-10-
Applications for public assistance by recent arrivals have been relatively few, mainly because of the one-year residence requirement for eligibility. Whether this level of demand will remain steady in the near future will depend upon the state of the economy. In the longer term, it is estimated that the present trend of immigration would increase expenditure on public assistance, disability and old age allowances by $400 million per annum by 1989.
The main effect of immigration will be felt in the provision of facilities in the field of rehabilitation, on which Hong Kong made a comparatively late start because of other more urgent areas of need. There will be delays in reaching original targets for day-care and residential places for the disabled, and a shortfall in the provision of special education places.
Education
The additional demand for primary school places does not pose an immediate problem of capital cost because it can be met through existing vacancies (but it will of course require additional recurrent expenditure). Immigrant children will be allocated public secondary school places through the primary school stream, and the effects of the especially heavy influx over the last two years will not begin to be felt until 1982.
Based on the number of illegal immigrants who have entered Hong Kong from 1975 to date, it is estimated that ultimately there will be an additional demand for 9 bi-
SECRET
/11....
}
Page 120Page 121