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his letter he suggests that he has an explicit programme in mind, involving an EXCO examination of the legislation early in June. Later in the letter he insists that implementation of the plans will
not be put into effect unless the situation deteriorates very drastically. I have therefore added to the first paragraph of the draft telegram.
3. Ministers may need to be more concerned, I think, with the
likely reactions in this country, and the need to explain any legis-
lation in the House of Commons, than with its effect on China or in
Hong Kong itself. I can visualise two lines of attack by habitual critics: first, that a more rigid expulsion procedure will put more people at risk to Chinese punishment, secondly that in Hong Kong's social conditions the identity card requirement will give rise to new crimes. On the first of these, I see no problem: we have constantly been able to maintain to critics that, to the best of our knowledge, returned illegal immigrants are not given drastic punishment. The second gives me more worries. I have no doubt that there will be some criminal measures of blackmail and 'protection',
not to mention a good forged identity card industry! But the
Governor himself is alive to the serious drawbacks to his own
proposal and I would think that Ministers could say, if necessary, that Sir M MacLehose's decision to put such legislation into effect
despite its disadvantages shows how serious the situation is.
4.
I have just this moment had another letter from Sir M MacLehose saying that, following an EXCO meeting on 14 May, work will go ahead on preparing a detailed operational plan. This does not affect the advice in the present papers.
19 May 1980
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DF Murray
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