CONFIDENTIAL

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However, the numbers being repatriated have in the last 2 months

risen sharply:

5,868 (daily average 196) in April and 8,163 (263)

in May, giving a total so far this year of more than 27,000. If this

upward trend did not continue for the rest of the year but held

steady at around 8,000, Hong Kong would have to absorb more than

80,000 illegals in 1980. This total, added to 54,000 legals (at an

annual daily average of 150), would give Hong Kong an intake for

1980 of about 135,000.

4.

Hong Kong took more than 200,000 immigrants from China last

year, resulting in a population increase of 6.2% against a projected

increase of just over 1.2%. Last year's increase put considerable

strain on Hong Kong's resources.

A new

5. HMG and the Hong Kong Government have done, and are doing,

what they can to stop illegal immigration from China at considerable

cost to both. The garrison has been reinforced with an additional

battalion as well as additional naval craft and helicopters.

illuminated primary border fence is being constructed. At the same

time, much tougher prison sentences are being imposed on organisers

of illegal immigration in Hong Kong and in one case an illegal

immigrant who had reached base in Hong Kong was returned to China

at the request of the Chinese.

6.

What is particularly worrying is that, unless the Chinese

take determined action as they did last summer when the total dropped

from 12,292 in June to 658 in July, the upward trend is likely to

follow past patterns and continue. If this happens, and at a time

when arrivals of refugees from Vietnam are also showing a sharp

increase, the situation will be very serious indeed.

CONFIDENTIAL

17.

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