To be
made nonsense of attempts to plan. It was not a question of what Hong Kong's maximum population could or should be. Whatever happened no doubt Hong Kong would have a population of over 7 million by the year 2000 and the problems of population increase were ones faced by nearly every country, including Chine. People were also a resource and the extent to which any place could cope with increased numbers would depend on making adequate provisions for education, housing and health to minimise the social strains and maximise the contributions which people could make to the community in which they live. Even a 1% population increase caused problems. suddenly faced with an unplanned and unpredicted 4% increase was as difficult for Hong Kong as it would be a.g. for Shanghai. Plans for new housing, schools, roads and hospitals had to be made years in advance and these also made demands on resources such as concrete and other materials in which supply could sometimes not be expanded to meet unexpected increases in demand. It was simply a fact that the present and future effects of immigration from Chirm made it that much harder to provide for land reclamation, wharf construction, road construction and termirml facilities which were all recessary and of mutual benefit for increased movements of people and goods between Hong Kong and places in China, Tan took all this in good part and said he would be grateful for further details of the effects on Hong Kong. He and his colleagues surs well acere of the problems and reported regularly on them. By implication, he would welcome and use any additional material which we could provide. We shall do so.
4.
One final point which I made on legal immigration was that the December figure for those returning to China within the period of their original Chinese travel documents (224) remained very low - 4,5% of arrivals on axit permits. It was, however, gradually incresmirgy. We would greatly welcome a rapid increase in the numbers of visitors who actually returned. It would obviously affect the way in which we talked about the immigration problem if for instance in a few months time we still had over 100 people a day arriving but also had 40 or 50 a day returning to China after their visit hers.
5.
As soon as it is ready we shall send you a copy of the survey we are doing on the detailed affects of immigration from China in Hong Kong, together with a copy of any material we pass to the NCNA, Meanwhile, we shall be grateful if you would take any suitable opportunity to reinforce the above paints with your own contacts, emphasising in particular the long term effects which we shall continue to suffer from as a result of the past 2 years' level of immigration.
cc P J Williamson Esq
HKEGO FCO
RC Fusland Esq FED FCO
(I Carr)