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CONFIDENTIAL
FM HONG KONG 0109407 JAN
Mr. Williamsn
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TO POUTINE FOREIGN AND COMMONWEALTH OFFICE / d like to sex
TELEGRAM NUMBER 188 OF 1 FEBRUARY, 1988
INFO PEKING AND HONG KONG GOVERNMENT OFFICE LONDON.
YOUR TELNO 88: IMMIGRATION FROM CHINA.
FOLLOWING FOR CLIFT, HKGD FROM POLITICAL ADVISER.
1. THE STATISTICS ARE INDEED DISCOURAGING. WE WILL NOT, HOWEVER, HAVE A CLEAR PICTURE OF THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF THE NEW CHINESE REGULATIONS UNTIL THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL TRIALS OF THOSE INVOLVED IN ORGANISING ''ESCAPES'' AND THAT LESSON HAS SUNK IN (SEE MY LETTER OF 23 JANUARY TO MCLAREN, FED). YOU WILL HAVE
SEEN FROM THE BBC MONITORING AND MY TELNO 182 THAT SOME TRIALS
HAVE ALREADY TAKEN PLACE. WE EXPECT MORE. IT WOULD BE UNREALISTIC
TO EXPECT ANY EFFECTS TO BE APPARENT BEFORE AT LEAST MID-FEBRUARY. AT THAT POINT THE PICTURE WILL AGAIN BE DISTORTED BY THE LUNAR NEW YEAR. THUS WE WILL NOT BE IN A POSITION TO GET AN ACCURATE PICTURE OF THE TREND UNTIL ABOUT THE END OF FEBRUARY.
2. THE REFERENCE IN THE EXCO MINUTES WAS TO A REVIEW OF THE EXISTING POLICY OF ALLOWING ILLEGALS WHO REACH BASE'' TO REGISTER AND REMAIN. THIS REVIEW SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY ABOUT THE END OF FEBRUARY. YOU WILL BE FAMILIAR WITH ALL THE ARGUMENTS FOR THE EXISTING POLICY WHICH MAKES A DECISION TO CHANGE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.
3. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE WOULD CONSIDER SUGGESTING ANY CHANGES TO OVERALL POLICY ON IMMIGRATION UNTIL AFTER THE END OF FEBRUARY WHEN THE NATURE OF THE PROBLEM WE HAVE TO FACE WILL BE CLEARER. MEANWHILE WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN PRESSURE ON THE CHINESE ABOUT BOTH ILLEGAL AND LEGAL IMMIGRATION.
4. THIS IS CERTAINLY A SUBJECT WHICH WE WILL WISH TO DISCUSS WHEN YOU ARE HERE. IF, MEANWHILE, MINISTERS SEEK ADVICE ON WHETHER A NEW POLICY IS NEEDED, I SUGGEST YOU SHOULD SAY THAT THE PICTURE IS AT PRESENT CLOUDED BY (1) RECENT CHINESE REGULATIONS ABOUT ESCAPING: AND, (11) THE COMING LUNAR NEW YEAR.
CONSEQUENTLY THE FACTUAL BACKGROUND AGAINST WHICH TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR ANY CHANGE OF POLICY WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE UNTIL EARLY MARCH.
MACLEHOSE