IF THE PROGRAMME IS TO ACHIEVE A SEASONABLE DEGREE OF SUCCESS,
• COUP TRIES WILL SOONER OR LATER HAVE TO AGREE TO TAKE SOME *PHUMANITARIAN CASES ON THE VIETNAMESE LIST AS A
QUID BRO QUO FOR GETTING THEIR OWN CASES OUT. IF VIETNAMESE PRESS E 18 RESISTED, THON I FEAR THAT THE NUMBER OF BOAT REFUGEES WILL INCREASE, PARTLY BECAUSE THE VIETNAMESE WILL WISH TO INCREASE THE PRESSURE BY THAT MEANS, AND PARTLY BECAUSE THE REFUGEES THEMSELVES, SEEING THAT THE UNHCR PROGRAMME IS NOT SUCCEEDING, WILL WISH TO LEAVE DY
BOAT.
IN THE PRESENT DIFFICULT SITUATION THE VISIT OF TURKMEN NEXT WEEK WILL BE IMPORTANT. IF HE CAN DO SOMETHING TO GET
THE AMERICAN CASES ROLLING, THE PROGRAMME MAY YET GET STARTED (IT IS POSSIBLE TO CLAIM THAT A FEW HUNDRED REFUGEES HAVE LEFT UNDER THE SCHEME: BUT THE NUMBERS ARE INSIG- NIFICANT) . BUT IF TURKMEN'S VISIT LEAVES THINGS
MUCH AS THEY ARE, I WOULD LIKE TO SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD
THEN GIVE SOME CONSIDERATION TO TALKING TO THE CANADIANS, AUSTRALIANS AND AMERICANS ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF US ALL
TAKING A SMALL NUMBER OF NON-FAMILY REUNION
CASES VIZ THOSE ON VIETNAM'S LIST. I APPRECIATE THIS
WOULD INVOLVE SOME DIFFICULT DECISIONS: BUT THE ALTERNA~
TIVE MIGHT WELL BE AT BEST A UNHCR PROGRAMME LIMPING ALONG
INEFFECTIVELY AND A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN THE NUMBER
OF BOAT REFUGEES, WITH ALL THE CONSEQUENTIAL PROBLEMS
FOR HONG KONG. IN THOSE
CIRCUMSTANCES VIETNAM, BY JUDGING NICELY HOW FAR TO TURN ON THE TAP, MIGHT MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR US AND OTHER COUNTRIES TO CREATE AN INTERNATIONAL ROW AS WE DID OVER THE MASSIVE DEPARTURES LAST YEAR. FURTHERMORE, I WOULD NOT EXPECT VIETNAM TO HAND US AGAIN THE MORAL WEAPON OF THE 'RACKET››
WITH WHICH TO BELABOUR HER. THERE WOULD BE
CORRUPTION AT LOWER LEVELS, BUT THIS WOULD NOT
BE A MATTER FOR INTERNATIONAL CONCERN AS WERE THE HUGE PROFITS VIETNAM MADE FROM THE REFUGEES IN 1979.
MARGETSON
NNNN
IMMEDIATE
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