1.
CONFIDENTIAL
-
2
Page No. 2 of 3 pages
in Minh Hai Province and knew of Chinese from two aborted ship departures being
detained on An Nhon Island in Ben Tre Province. Most ethnic Chinese are
reportedly unemployed and have to buy food on the black market. They have
not been moved to the New Economic Zones. Those registered for departure before
the moratorium are now in limbo, most of them refusing to accept a refund
of their fees in heavily discounted Vietnamese currency.
5.
Ethnic Chinese in Southern Vietnam have told their relatives overseas
that they may be able to leave in late February. The departure charge will
be up to eight taels of gold if they leave from the South, but may be reduced
by half from the North. Many had expected to be allowed to leave in October, but
this date was postponed to 1 November, then 1 December, and is now expected by the
refugees to be mid-February. More than half a million ethnic Chinese are estimated
to be still in Vietnam and money agents in Hong Kong are continuing to accept
money for departure payments and living expenses from Chinese in Hong Kong
or the USA for remittance or transfer to their relatives in Vietnam.
A possible major venture?
An Overseas Chinese refugee shipping syndicate in Hong Kong has
continued with its contingency planning to collect ethnic Chinese from Vietnam
and now has a 9,000 ton ship waiting in the Gulf of Siam off Kampuchea, whilst
negotiationS are conducted with the Vietnamese authorities concerning the
possible transport of about 3,000 persons from two earlier aborted ship
departures (M.V. SEAVIEW and HIGH GLORY).
Assessment:
7.
The weakening of the northeast monsoon in early March is likely
to encourage the clandestine departure of more ethnic Vietnamese with access to
boats. Many may come to Hong Kong. Large numbers of ethnic Chinese are
unlikely to arrive unless the moratorium is broken, as they can no longer
obtain boats. Political and economic necessity may however force the
Vietnamese authorities to expel the remaining ethnic Chinese gradually, attributing
the departures to low level corruption and their inability to police the country's
long coastline, rather than admit that the moratorium has ended.
boats are available and earmarked in the south for this purpose.
Many small
CONFIDENTIAL
/ para 8