CONFIDENTIAL
Apart from a few hundred places under the present stralian programme, there are no other significant outstanding quotas. Including the Australian places, total resettlement during 1981 in addition to the three programmes above is unlikely to exceed 1,000. This means that, at present, we face the prospect of starting 1981 with resettlement opportunities some 4,000 short of the number of refugees then in Hong Kong. This makes no allowance for new arrivals. Furthermore, it assumes that the Americans will maintain a quota of 1,500 a month regardless of what others do. This is, in fact, unlikely.
5.'
The attitude of the US is crucial. Up to now they have taken about half our refugees. There are increasing signs that they are very unhappy at the prospect of this percentage share getting any larger as a result of others ceasing to play their part. The newly arrived Refugee Field Officer at the US Consulate- General told Iain Orr recently in terms that it would be very difficult for the present US quota to be maintained unless at least half as many refugees were being resettled in third countries as were going to the US. The same point was made in more general terms by Hank Cushing, Deputy Director of the Office of Asian Refugees in the State Department, when he recently visited Hong Kong. He said that the US expected a good proportion of refugees from Hong Kong still be go to third countries, particularly to the UK, and made it clear that the US watched very carefully the figures of who went where. In talking to SEAD in late September the Americans were even more specific. They said continuation of the 1,500 a month quota from Hong Kong depended heavily on the ability of the State Department to persuade Congress that others, particularly the UK, were continuing to carry a fair share of the burden (FCO tel to Hong Kong no 866 of 1 October).
6.
This is where the new UK quota comes in. We need it for three reasons: first, for the sake of the numbers themselves; second, because it would demonstrate locally the UK's continuing involvement and support for the liberal policies adopted towards. refugees by Hong Kong; and, thirdly and most important, because only with a new UK quota will we have the leverage we need to persuade the Americans to stick to their present planned programme and to persuade others (e.g. Canada and Australia) to resume their efforts.
7.
I think the minimum new quota to achieve these objectives would be 5,000. Such a quota need not have a time limit. It could also, if this was essential from a UK point of view, include rescues at sea, although the impact would be lessened if this was announced publicly. As for timing, this obviously must depend to a large extent on UK domestic considerations.
From the Hong Kong point of view it goes without saying that the sooner there can be a new quota the more it can be used to persuade others.
(D C Wilson)
CONFIDENTALCopies overleaf..
2.