The forecasting effort included both a review of the detailed analytical approach used in the 1973-1975 long- term studies and an update and reapplication of the methodology on a judgmental basis. Estimates were made of air passenger traffic generated by Hong Kong residents and of traffic to and from the mainland and new regional destinations. Figure 3 shows the historical and forecast trends in the traditional logarithmic graphic presentation and also relates (as boxed areas) the annual traffic volumes in absolute terms. The forecasts indicate a more than fourfold increase over the 1978 traffic levels at Kai Tak during the specified period, reaching a level of about 24.5 million passenger arrivals and departures in the planning year of 1995.
In terms of airport facilities, the characteristic pattern and quantity of aircraft operations is more important than the annual volume of passenger and cargo
traffic. The aircraft fleet serving Hong Kong consists primarily of long-range jet aircraft, and during the past few years this fleet has been transitioning rapidly to wide-body aircraft. The average number of seats in passenger aircraft now serving Hong Kong is 226, which is considerably greater than at most major air terminals, reflecting the absence of domestic service at Hong Kong. This transition to wide-body aircraft is emphasized by a comparison: as of January 1979, about half of the aircraft operations at Hong Kong were performed by wide-body aircraft; during the same month in 1972, the figure was
HISTORICAL
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 1955-1978 = 17.3%
FORECAST
AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH
HATE 1978-7995 = 9.1%
CALENDAR YEAR
1955
1960
1985
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
50.000
40.000
30,000
20.000
10,000
FORECAST
5.000
4,000
1979 ACTUAL! 5,230.137)
3.000
2,000
1.000
FISCAL YEAR BATA
1955-1958 TO 1968-1969
500
490
300
290
CALENDAR YEAR DATA 1969-1978
800011000
||NOVA MADRYER
30908Y
BIRCRAFT
BRISY
SZDY HEA
ATREBKET PASSIONER
1945
only about 5%. The Consultants forecast that by 1985 more than 90% of the aircraft fleet using Hong Kong will be wide-body aircraft.
The growth in the number of aircraft movements at Kai Tak has actually declined in recent years because these wide-body aircraft have been able to accommodate the increased passenger volume without generating a corres- ponding increase in the volume of aircraft operations. The transition, however, is approaching completion. As it does, the growth rate of the average aircraft size will slacken. The annual aircraft movements will again resume a growth pattern, and the 1979 traffic figures reflect the resumption of growth with a 6% increase. The Standard Busy Rate (a typical planning parameter) is forecast to increase from approximately 25 aircraft movements per
hour in 1978 to about 52 movements per hour in the plan- ning horizon of 1995, or an increase of more than 100%.
Of equal importance to the replacement airport planning effort is the phenomenal growth in air cargo. Hong Kong enjoys a position as one of the largest air cargo centres in the world, and the outlook for air cargo growth is equally promising. The increased manufacture of advanced technology products, continued export of Chinese products through Hong Kong, increasing local demand for consumables to support the tourist industry, and continually increasing resident affluence all combine to ensure the continued dynamic growth in air cargo through the mid-1980s. A more normal rate of increase is forecast for the remaining years in the planning period. By 1995, the volume of air cargo is expected to increase to nearly six times the level of 1978, representing about 1,200,000 tonnes of cargo in 1995. This volume will be about twice that handled today at any of the world's major air terminals.
PASSENGER ARGIVALS AND DEPARTURES THOUSANDS!
100
68
50
48
30
2557 AUST
20
24 BUSY
10
Figure 3 - Annual Air Passenger Demand
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