prediction, is that noise levels over residential land (including the existing village of Tung Chung) might only be unacceptable over part of the San Tau headland adjoining Phase I of the airport and over a narrow fringe of the eventual reclaimed area along the extreme north-western coast of Lantau island and the western shore of a Wan island. Due to the alignment of the runways and the proposed aircraft trajectories, the higher levels of noise would be concentrated at the airport itself and over the sea to the south-west and north-east. The mainland would not be significantly affected.
45.
The Consultants' terms of reference required them to identify areas on the mainland and Lantau where limitations on building heights might have to be imposed because of a replacement airport at Chck Lap Kok, and these are shown on page 22 of Annex A. It is unlikely that there will be any significant intrusion of navigational aids into country parks either on Lantau or the mainland.
PROPOSED CONSTRUCTION PROGRAMME AND COST ESTIMATES
46.
In view of the expected shortfall in Kai Tak's capacity in the mid-1980s, the Consultants have advised that certain tasks be accelerated. As pointed out in paragraph 41 above, the degree of acceleration that can be achieved is limited by the pace of the extensive rock excavation that will be needed for the land reclamation, and by the results to be expected from reclamation over the mud on the sea bed.
47.
Because of the problems relating to the reclamation (referred to in paragraph 39 above) a comprehensive soils investigation programme for the Phase I area is recommended. It would consist of additional geotechnical surveys, bathymetric tests, The results of and comprehensive test-fill trials. test-fill trials might enable large reductions in construction costs to be realized.
48.
As Kai Tak is likely to become congested in 1985, while Phase I of the replacement airport will not be completed before 1990, Hong Kong will be unable to avoid incurring some measure of economic penalty. Construction cannot commence until the further studies and detailed planning now recommended have been completed. It is therefore proposed that work now be undertaken:
(a) to finalise the detailed plan of the
airport;
CONFIDENTIAL ##