(Further statistical analysis of these statistics indicates the following probability of 0, 1 or 2 accidents actually occurring in a 10-year period.
No. of accidents
in a 10-year
period
Percentage probability of occurrence
о
1
2
60%
31.50
7.50
What makes these figures more worrying is that any accident at Kai Tak is likely to involve a populous area. It is probable that such an accident would lead to strong public support for Kai Tak's early closure and for its highly restricted operation until such closure.)
6.
As the timing of the Consultants' report was such that the effects of the oil crisis and subsequent world economic recession were likely to affect their air traffic forecasts, the Civil Aviation Department reviewed the projected growth rates in 1975/76 and again in 1977, and concluded that the maximum practical capacity of Kai Tak (10 million passengers per annum) would be reached by 1985.
7
Between May 1975 and August 1977 the Aviation Advisory Board considered various matters connected with the Consultants' recommendations, and, in particular
(a)
(b)
the importance of the air transport system to Hong Kong's economy; and
the economic implications of not building a replacement airport.
It concluded that
(c)
the air transport system played a vital part in Hong Kong's economic development because of its importance for trade and tourism, and that the limited scope for expansion at Kai Tak might pose problems for these sectors during the 1980s;
CONFIDENTIAL