The first four of these assumptions are in line with those used for other planning purposes. Needless to say, the choice of assumptions inevitably involves a degree of subjective judgment. However, if these assumptions, in the event, prove to be incorrect, they are likely to have erred on the side of caution, viz: the demand for public transport being projected is likely to be higher. The fifth assumption, about the growth rate of private car availability, although it implies that the present level of car registrations will have more than doubled by 1996, has been made on the assumption - repeat assumption that some steps will be taken to restrain the use of private cars.
14
As indicated in paragraph 8 above, public transport passenger boardings in the Corridor now average 1.6 million a day. On the assumptions made, it is forecast that this number will rather more than double to 3.5 million a day in 1996, representing a growth rate of 5% per annum.
15
Two considerations should be borne in mind in respect of this forecast: first, there is a close correlation between household incomes and passenger movements. So, whatever the increase in the real cost of public transport over time, the expected doubling of households' real incomes is likely to be of critical significance. Secondly, because of the disparity between the growth rates of population and employment on Hong Kong Island, a considerable proportion of the demand for public transport in 1996 in the Corridor will involve cross-harbour journeys.
16
All professional opinion which has been obtained is agreed that, on the reasonable assumptions made, something in the order of a doubling in the demand for public passenger transport is a realistic forecast for 1996.
(4) Public Passenger Transport Supply Response by 1996
17
The 3.5 million boardings a day forecast for public passenger transport in the Corridor in 1996 call for at least a doubling in the capacity of public transport facilities there. The required increase has to take account of the fact that present public transport services along the Corridor are poor. As trams, buses and PLBs could not, by themselves, meet all this expected demand, not even if the trams were converted to an LRT system, on purely transport grounds the need for an Island Line of the MTR is indicated.
CONFIDENTIAL