Then, in the light of upward revisions in the projected growth rates of population, employment and income since the Island Corridor strategy was initially developed, it became questionable whether the public transport capacity provided by the LRT-based strategy would be sufficient to meet likely demand. Accordingly, new computer tests of future passenger demand were commissioned. A significant result of this fresh look at demand was that the demand for the LRT would be
1.5 million boardings a day by the mid-1990s. As this would involve a maximum one-way, peak-hour demand of 62, 500 passengers, the maximum possible on-street carrying capacity of the LRT system (30,000 passengers an hour) would only be capable of satisfying less than half the demand. This result, particularly when taken in conjunction with the uncertainty about whether even this maximum capacity could, in practice, be provided, meant that the LRT-based strategy was abandoned and the alternative strategy based on a largely underground mass transit railway was developed.
(3) Demand for Public Passenger Transport
Services in the Island Corridor in 1996
12
Passenger demand has been projected for 1996, that is, ten years after a railway system along the Corridor could open. The year 1996 was chosen as the design year because it is near enough to the present to be predictable, but distant enough to be relevant to the long-term investment involved. The following were the main assumptions made in projecting the 1996 demand for public passenger transport services in the Corridor:
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
the land population of Hong Kong would be 6. 26 million, compared with an estimated 5, 10 million in 1980, representing a growth rate of 1.33% per annum (made up of a natural increase of 1,00% and net immigration of 0.33%);
the population of Hong Kong Island would be 1.26 million, compared with an estimated 1. 20 million in 1980, representing a growth rate of 0.4% per annum;
employment along the Corridor would be 612,000, compared with an estimated 477,000 in 1980, representing a growth rate of 1, 6% per annum;
average household incomes, in real terms, would be twice their 1980 level, representing a growth rate of 4.4% per annum; and
the number of households in Hong Kong to whom a private
car is available would increase by 5% per annum from 1980 to 1996.
CONFIDENTIAL #