- 7 -
Consequently, if the present peak-hour frequency of 250 buses
per hour were to be operated for 19 hours (5 a.m. midnight) with 180-capacity buses, the total capacity for those bus services would be (250 buses x 180 passengers x 19 hours x
2 passengers per place x 2 directions =) 3.42 million per day.
By increasing the present frequency by 13 buses per hour ( i.e. 5%) the total capacity would be 3.6 million per day. Further
increases in frequency could be made in order to carry an even larger number of passengers.
3.5 The apparent reasons given for the use of the 5% growth rate
are population growth and the fact that greater personal
affluence will encourage people to make more leisure trips by
public transport. However, this increase in trips is more
likely to occur in off-peak periods and on Sundays than during
peak periods on Mondays to Saturdays when people are travelling
to/from work. This means that the growth rate for peak hour demand will be less than the all-day growth rate, and so a
more appropriate growth factor to apply to peak hour demand is 3.5% per annum. Even the all-day growth factor of 5%
may be too high in the light of the Government's new policy
on immigration from China, and the likelihood that rising property prices could force a greater proportion of a person's income to be spent on housing.
3.6 Whilst estimates of all-day boardings are important for the
financial appraisal of a particular strategy, it is the
maximum peak-hour demand which determines whether the strategy
can cope with the passenger demand.
3.7 The Comprehensive Transport Study (C.T.S.) forecast a peak-
hour demand level of 44,000 passengers at Wanchai in 1991 for
a combination of buses, PLB's and modernised trams, whilst the Island Corridor Study (I.C.S.) suggested a figure of 40,000. These figures need to be uplifted by various factors to take account of recent trends in Hong Kong's population growth and, in particular, revised estimates of population and
employment along the Island Corridor.
.18.