Domnul ÜZERİN.
HONG KONG
To summarize the above, there are at least three main scenarios:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
A refinery designed to meet Hong Kong demand only.
Additional capacity, plus yield shifting plant, to supply Hong Kong itself as well as an export market e.g. Japan.
A larger version of either (i) or (ii) above capable of supplying into China also.
The scenario examined in the remainder of this report is for a plant designed to meet Hong Kong demand up to the year 1990 i.e. 250,000 b/d. Scenarios (ii) and (iii) above cannot be reviewed without the making of further assumptions as to market demand and values.
Economics
The main refinery configurations studied were those as set out in the preliminary schemes report (Appendix 1) with the addition of an 8,000 bpsd catalytic reformer to meet Hong Kong motor spirit demand.
First-order capital and fixed operating costs were estimated for schemes involving Taching and Kuwait crudes (Appendix 2). A capital cost of US$560 million is estimated for the Taching case compared with US$400 million for the Kuwait case, excluding cost of land. Fixed operating costs are of the order of US$15 million/annum. In the absence of criteria for assigning a value to land, statements in this report about rates of return on investment omit any cost for land.
As can be seen, using 100% Chinese crude increases the capital cost by approximately $160 million mainly because of the addition of a catalytic dewaxing plant to overcome product quality problems. in middle distillates and fuel oils because of the waxy nature of Taching crude. (Taching crude has been assumed in these schemes because insufficient assay data is available on Pearl River and Shengli crude oils.) Kuwait crude has been included as an alternative feedstock to demonstrate the relative expense of using Chinese crude to meet Hong Kong demand, since Kuwait crude best fits the demand without the waxy complications.
Based on the costs in Appendix 2 the gross margin (at the refinery) required to give a 5% real return on investment, and the break- even position, were calculated for the Taching and Kuwait crude cases. (Appendices 3 to 6).
*Note:
A "real" DCF rate of return forecasts future cash flows (both revenues and costs) in money of the day terms, and then deflates them to give present values by reference to an appropriate inflation factor.