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independence,&The Antiguan Prime Minister is in London for their final talks.
now from the Crossman Diaries that a committee charged with long-term British withdrawl from Hongkong existed in 1968, but whether it still does is no doubt an Official Secret. However, the pattern is clear, what the FCO wants to do is to get out of the hassles of the UN Decolonialisation Committee, reduce the number of departments at the FCO, and cost importantly, re-establish sound commercial relationships with the neighbouring states where they are impaired at the moment by an existing dependency. The interests of say, the 2,000 inhabitants of the Falkland Ils. are less important than doing a solid reliable deal with Argentina that will be a permanent basis for joint oil exploration and the use of the islands for exploitation of the huge protein/fertilizer potential of the krill of the South Atlantic. Britain's interests in seeing Spain safely into the Common Market will not be deflected by some old-fashioned fuddy-duddy sentimentality about what the 27,000 Gibraltarians might feel about that deal.
The pro's and con's of British withdrawl from longkong are more complicated as we shall see when we draw up the profit and loss account on trade and investment Despite the frequent and to my mind, disingenuous) repetitions about HK being sui generis - a special case it seems illogical that it can escape the final wave of decolonisation.
The political benefits of British control (such as it is) to HK don't ama ount to very much. More is heard about the disadvantages, Pritain's failure to secure tarrif-free entry for HK goods under the Multi-Fibre Agreement, British 'interference' over labour laws and the death penalty, Pritain's weakness over disposing the Vietnamese boat-people problem, hostility and protectionism on the part of British trade unions, trouble-making British MP's and pressure- groups. The only real benefit is the presence of ritish & Ghurka troops, said to symbolise British 'commitment' to HK, in reality as backup to police in the event of riots an ever-present likelihood. In any case, HK now pays the large part of the cost of these troops out of its very substantial coffers and could pay more if needed, despite loud moans over the latest 50% hike in the HK ontribution.
The trading relationship is clear enough in general terms, though shrouded in secrecy as to exact sums. Britain makes a loss on visible trade which is corrected to a substantial profit when the invisible account is rendered. That is to say, banking insurance and shipping profits are very good and cover the gap on the exchange of British Leyland buses for HK digital watches and jeans. Mr. P.L. O'Keefe, then head of the HK desk at the FCO estimated the return on the invisible account to be "perhaps £200m or £300m." (Defence & External Affairs Subcommittee, Third Report, Hongkong & Cyprus', House of Commons paper 270 of 1976.p.17) This figure presumably applies to 1973/4 figures since it was given before 1975 was finished, and its size today would be very much larger. Even presuming that the British share of HK's banking, insurance and shipping remained constant at the 1973/4 percentage, thenallowing for the absobute increase in trade of roughly 10% p.a., and adjusting to 1980 prices, this figure today is probably not very far from £1000m per year. And that is not all. We should add about £100m defence subsidy, some figure for the advantage that British airlines reap by London negotiating landing rights at IK's airport - Kaitak - the estimate for which appears to have been censored out of the House of Commons paper referred to above (p.17). Another sort of figure ought to be added for the value to Cable & Wireless of its near monopoly of Far East telecommunications both Cable and satellite-via its protected position in Hongkong as long as it stays British. Return on direct British investment are also hard to estimate, partly because they disappear in a maze of nominee accounts and holding companies and disguised investment via Hongkong-owned subsidiaries registered as London companies.
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