POLITICAL ADVISER
SECRET
MINUTE
њск оной
RECEIVED IN REGISTRY NO. 51 13 AUG 1980
DESK OFFICER
INDEASES PA
RECIS
Acti
AW 13/8
83
8128
PA
Mw
شکایات
9"/8
I undertook to let the CO have a note for the Secretary of State's brief on what the results would be for Hong Kong's economy if confidence started to fail through lack of an arrangement about Leases.
2
The material is all available in the Financial Secretary's remarks in Peking, particularly what he said to Vice Premier Gu Mu. The point to remember is that there could be a triple effect, e.g.
(a) the effect on outside investors;
(b)
the diversion abroad of the cash flow of domestic property developers;
(c)
the effect on Government investment.
All this is quite different to the sort of dismantling of the factofies and emigration abroad which took place in Shanghai when confidence collapsed towards the end of the Kuo Ming-tang regime, but I think the Chinese are inclined to see things in similar terms.
3.
Could you please let me have something within ten days.
Сс
In Clift.
9 August, 1980
GOVERNOR
SECRET