2.
IS THE DANGER IS THE DANGER OF A SUDDEN COLLAPSE OF HONG KONG'S ECONOMY
THE
PASIS OF THIS PREDICTION INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING: THE BEGINNING OF
THE OUTFLOW OF BRITISH CAPITAL FROM HONG KONG TYPIFIED BY THE
HONG KONG AND SHANGHAI BANK'S BUYING INTO THE AMERICAN MIDLAND BANK
AND HONG KONG RESIDENTS BEING CLASSIFIED AS SECOND CLASS CITIZENS
WHO CANNOT MIGRATE TO ENLAND AT WILL.
THE SECOND PREDICTION IS THAT THE LEASE QUESTION WILL BE
RESOLVED AND A DECISION WILL BE MADE WHEREBY HONG KONG WILL STILL
BE RULED BY THE BRITISH ADMINISTRATIVELY AND CHINA WILL INCREASE
IT S INFLUENCE IN HONG KONG.
THE THIRD PREDICTION IS THAT THE LEASE QUESTION WILL BE
RE SOLVED BUT THE DECISION REACHED ON THE FATE OF HONG KONG WILL
PE THAT IT WILL RETURN TO THE FOLD OF CHINA POLITICALLY AND THE
INTERESTS OF FOREIGN CAPITAL IN HONG KONG WILL CONTINUE TO BE
PROTECTED.
ACTUALLY, THERE ARE SOME OBVIOUS COMMON POINTS IN THESE
PREDICTIONS.
FIRST IS THAT THE LEASE QUESTION IS INDEED A PROBLEM.
ALTHOUGH
IN THEIR PUBLIC PRONOUNCEMENTS FOTH THE CHINESE AND THE BRITISH
SIDE TEND TO TAKE THIS QUESTION LIGHTLY, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, WHICH
IS THE CORNER ST ONE OF HONG KONG'S ECONOMY, IS LOOKING FOR THIS
SIGNAL TO DETERMINE ITS NEXT STEP.
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THE SECOND POINT IS THAT ALMOST NO ONE BELIEVES THAT HONG KONG
CAN BECOME INDEPENDENT. OF COURSE SOME OPINIONS HOLD THAT THERE
IS NO REASON THAT MAKES HONG KONG'S RETURN TO CHINA IMPERATIVE.
BUT THESE OPINIONS ARE MOSTLY FOR THE SAKE OF ARGUMENT. ACTUAL
CONDITIONS DICTATE THAT THE CHANCES OF HONG KONG BECOMING INDEPENDENT
ARE EXTREMELY SLIM. MOREOVER, VERY FEW PEOPLE BELIEVE THAT THE
INDEPENDENCE OF HONG KONG WOULD DO THE HONG KONG PEOPLE ANY GOOD. ––
THE THIRD POINT IS THAT WHETHER THE PROSPERITY OF HONG KONG WILL:
CONTINUE IS THE CENTRAL QUESTION. ON THIS PROBLEMNO MATTER HOW THE
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