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4. BUT (A), THE FUTURE STATUS AND ADMINISTRATION OF HONG KONG, COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE CHINESE (AND US), AND SINCE
IT COULD BE PUT OFF UNTIL THE LATE-80S WHEN THE POST-MAO GOVERNMENT
AND ITS POLICIES WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE STABILIZED, WE WOULD BE PRUDENT NOT TO PUSH THE CHINESE ON IT AT PRESENT. THOUGH GU MU APPEARED TO RECOGNISE THAT IT MUST BE FACED SOMETIME, BOTH DENG'S REMARKS TO ME AND GU'S TO HADDON-CAVE SUGGEST THEY SEE NO URGENCY
OVER IT.
5. BUT IF THEY DO WANT TO PUT OFF TACKLING THE LONG-TERM PROBLEM IT
WILL BE ESSENTIAL TO DO ENOUGH UNDER (B) TO HOLD UP CONFIDENCE MEANWHILE. I THINK THIS FEASIBLE GIVEN CHINESE COOPERATION
6. THE IMMEDIATE OBSTACLE IS THAT IN-SPITE OF THEIR FAIRLY FORTHCOMING ATTITUDE ON THE LONG-TERM PROBLEM, THE CHINESE HAVE SO FAR PRODUCED NOTHING APPLICABLE TO THE SHORT-TERM, AND IT IS DOUBTFUL IF AT THE TOP LEVEL THEY HAVE YET FULLY UNDERSTOOD IT, OR ACCEPTED THAT IT EXISTS AS SOMETHING REQUIRING CONCRETE MEASURES RATHER THAN BRO AD ASSURANCES. NOR DO WE KNOW WHETHER THEY ARE PREPARED TO CONSIDER IT SEPARATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE LONG-TERM PROBLEM.
7. I SUGGEST THAT IN HIS AUTUMN VISIT THE SECRETARY OF STATE START
FROM THE STATEMENTS OF DENG AND GU: CONFIRM THEIR ASSURANCES APPLIÐ
TO REAL ESTATE IN THE NEW TERRITORIES AS WELL AS INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT: EXPLAIN THE DIFFERENT TIMESCALES OF THE TWO RELATED ASPECTS OF THE PROBLEM URGE THE NEED TO GIVE THOUGHT TO THE CONVER- SION OF DENG'S GENERAL LONG-TERM ASSURANCES INTO SOMETHING MORE IMMEDIATE AND SPECIFIC ABOUT THE VALIDITY OF LONGER NEW TERRITORIES
LEASES: AND GENERALLY TRY AND DISCOVER WHETHER THE CHINESE WOULD BE WILLING TO DISCUSS (B) IN ADVANCE OF (A).
8. IF THE S OF S AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO CERTAINLY NOTICE SHOULD BE GIVEN OF HIS INTENTIONS IN GENERAL TERMS NEARER
THE TIME. BUT I REMAIN OPPOSED TO TALKS WITH THE MFA MEANWHILE. FIRSTLY THEY WILL NOT ADD TO HADDON-CAVE'S ADMIRABLE EXPOSITION
AND I THINK THE CHINESE SHOULD BE LEFT TO STUDY THE MEATY RECORD AND CHECK THE VALIDITY OF WHAT HE SAID WITH THEIR HONG KONG AGENCIES.
SECONDLY WITHOUT A NEW DIRECTIVE FROM THE TOP TALKS WITH THE MFA MAY TEND MERELY TO CRYSTALISE THE PRESENT CHINESE APPROACH, AND ARE MOST UNLIKELY TO CHANGE IT. THE AUTUMN WILL BE TIME ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER GO AT THE TOP.
/9. THIRDLY
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