CONFIDENTIAL

MR BLAKER'S MEETING WITH SIR MURRAY MACLEHOSE: 11.30 am FRIDAY 11 JANUARY

BRIEF NO.7: THE HONG KONG ECONOMY:

WORKS PROGRAMME

IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PUBLIC

1.

At the beginning of 1979, the Hong Kong economy was showing

signs of dangerous overheating. During the previous year a rapid

growth in domestic demand (in both the public and private sectors),

particularly from the construction industry, had drawn resources

away from the export sector. Full employment and growing prosperity

led to increased consumer spending and a sharp rise in imports.

Despite an increase of 14% in exports, the visible trade gap in 1978

had widened sharply to HK$9,132 million (1977: HK$3,868 million).

2. The 1979 budget therefore included measures to slow down the

growth of demand by reducing public works targets; by limiting the

extent to which the Government's Hong Kong dollar balances could be

used as a base for domestic credit creation; by limiting the sources

of credit available to developers; by maximising land sales; and

by interest rate adjustments.

3. Whilst these measures have been reasonably effective (exports

this year have grown faster than imports), the problem of excess

demand persists. Rapid increases in wages and in the price of con-

struction materials lifted the labour and material cost index last

summer to a level 43% higher than the previous year and the tender

price index for Government contracts in the third quarter of last

year was 32% up on the same quarter the previous year.

CONFIDENTIAL

/Public Finances

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