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autumn and there may be some unemployment; that public pressure is
growing; and that legal immigration cannot be brought under control
until action has been taken against illegals. At the same time, he
does not see any prospect of an improvement on the Chinese side until
the new steps are taken. The Chinese have for some time now suggested,
in response to our representations, that all illegal immigrants should
be returned and that the failure to do so encourages illegal immi-
gration. This was underlined in Assistant Foreign Minister Song
Zhiguang's remarks to HM Ambassador on 21 June (Peking telegram No 412).
5. The difficulties described by the Governor are real. Although the
current average daily arrest rate is fairly steady at around 250, the
prospect of a total addition of 125,000 legals and illegals in 1980
is no exaggeration. Moreover, public pressure is certainly
increasing; the mood in Hong Kong is overwhelmingly anti-immigrant.
ExCo's advice is another indication.
6.
The problem is therefore unlikely to be the immediate reaction to
the proposed measures, either in Hong Kong or here. The difficulties
would come later, in the form of new opportunities for crime and of
police/public relations. While eventual implementation of the
measures may well be inevitable there is a strong argument for delay-
ing, mainly so that we can demonstrate that nothing was left undone
before the decision was taken. The Secretary of State's visit to
China in October is a factor here. It is true that Mr Blaker's
interview with the Chinese Ambassador was intended partly to meet the
presentational point, but there might be some criticism in Parliament
if the scheme were launched before Lord Carrington had taken the
opportunity to press the matter in Peking.
/The MacLennan Case
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