G.F. 316
SECRET 高度機密
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These people know from overseas (particularly BBC) or Hong Kong radio broadcasts and correspondence from relatives that refugees reaching Hong Kong are resettled overseas.
8.
No large ships are believed to be waiting near HoChi Minh City ready to collect refugees, since the SEAVIEW, a Taiwanese owned Panamanian registered ship of 2, 150 tons was forced to sail without refugees in late June, partly as a result of British diplomatic pressure on Hanoi. Strong police action in both Hong Kong and Singapore against overseas Chinese shipping syndicates has discouraged other ships from going to Vietnam. for this purpose although planning by syndicates continues,
Assessment
9.
Vietnam has agreed to a moratorium on departures because of international pressure and will probably keep to this commitment only if she judges it to be in her own interest. She gave no time limit and the period may last for only a few months. There is no evidence that Vietnam has changed her policy of expelling all ethnic Chinese which, one report claimed, was to be complete by April, 1980, There are now diplomatic reports that Vietnam expects resettlerrent comtries working under the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees' Seven Point Programme, to take a large number of these people each month directly from Vietnam as part of the moratorium.
10.
It is assessed that Vietnara may treat the moratorium. period as a breathing space, and resume the refugee flow, either gradually, or in fuik in the coming months ahead, by claiming she cannot patrol her long coastline ana citing actions by the U. S. Seventh Fleet or mercy ships as encouraging people to flee Vietnam.. Whilst the moratoriur: continues, it is likely that refugees will go on arriving from Vietnam, albeit in reduced numbers. An unknown factor at present is the continuing tension on the Sino-Vietnamese border, which, if it were to increase, could lead to the tap being turned on' again.
11.
Until China stops the departure of ethnic Chinese Vietnamese who have been resettled in China, a num ber of these people will continue to make their way to Hong Kong.
LIC Hong Kong August 1979
SECRET 高度機密