SECRET 高度機密
2
Page No. 2 of 3
pages
stopping at the time of the moratorium, are continuing to accept money from persons in Hong Kong or the USA on behalf of their relatives in Vietnam wanting to leavo legitimately under the U programme or by more clandestinc means. However the level of this activity remains lower than in the first half of this year.
4.
Of the 38 boats positively identified to dato as originating in China, at least five recent ones have had Chinese illegal immigrants (IIs) mingled amongst the refugees. The 61 IIs identified are mainly from Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region but some are also from the Guangzhou area who made their way to Beihai. They see the refugees as a way of escape from China. These IIs have stated that most refugee boats leaving Beihai in the past months have contained Guangxi residents; sometimes the refugees have thrown the Chinese IIs overboard, fearing that their presence on board might destroy the refugees' cover story of having come direct from Vietnam.
5.
A feature of arrivals from China during the past two months has been new departure points (Xiuling and Dongli in Guangdong Province and Qisha in Guangxi) rather than Pingsha, in Doumen County, Guangdong Province or Beihai, the refugees stating this was due to less Public Security
(PS) surveillance and cheaper costs. A number of China boats are reported to have been arrested by PS patrols off the Shangchuan Deo (St. John Islands) west of Vacau.
Assessment
!
6.
Unless Sino-Victnarose relations deteriorate further to the point of renewed hostilities, Vietnar will probably hold to her moratorium for the time being. Some confirmation of this was given by the Victnamese representative at the U.N. on 12 Hovember. The reported expulsion of ethnic Chinese from Cambodia by Vietnamese troops could indicate that the Vietnamese Government has not abandoned its intention of ridding Vietnam also of ethnic Chinese. However, for as long as the moratorium holds, large ships are unlikely to engage in refugee traffic.
7.
Many
Ethnic Vietnamese from southern Vietnam with access to fishing boats, especially officials of the pre-1975 regime, or young men subject to military conscription, are likely to go on trying to escape. may try to 'shipwreck' themselves on the Singapore-Hong Kong shipping lane so as to be rescued by passing European registered snips. There have been eight such rescues since 21 July.
18.
Many Vietnamese
G.F. 316
SECRET 高度機密