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4. THIRDLY, WE HAVE HAD RELIABLE RECENT REPORTS CF AT LEAST ONE SYNDICATE WITH ACTIVE PLANS TO SEND A LARGE BOAT TO VIETNAM TO PICK UP REFUGEES. THERE HAVE BEEN FURTHER REPORTS THAT A NUMBER OF OTHER SYNDICATES ARE MAKING CONTINGENCY PLANS SHOULD THE VIETNAMESE AUTHORITIES INDICATE THAT LARGE BOATS WOULD AGAIN
BECOME AN ACCEPTABLE METHOD OF TRANSPORT.
5. ALL OF THE FOREGOING EVIDENCE CONCERNS PLANS FOR DEPARTURE BY PEOPLE WISHING TO LEAVE, MIDDLEMEN IN VIETNAM AND OUTSIDE SYNDICATES. APART FROM THE EVIDENCE OF LOW LEVEL CORRUPTION, NONE BEARS DIRECTLY ON THE INTENTIONS OF THE VIETNAMESE GOVERNMENT.
HOWEVER, A NUMBER OF REPORTS BASED ON REFUGEE DEBRIEFINGS HERE AND ELSEWHERE HAVE INDEPENDENTLY SPOKEN OF ENCOURAGEMENT BEING GIVEN TO THE ETHNIC CHINESE COMMUNITY IN VIETNAM BY VIETNAMESE OFFICIALS TO BELIEVE THAT THEY MIGHT SOON BE ABLE TO LEAVE BY BOAT. A CONSISTENT FEATURE IN SUCH REPORTS IS THAT THIS TIME CONSIDERABLE EFFORTS WOULD BE MADE TO DISGUISE THE ELEMENT OF OFFICIAL INVOLVEMENT EG BY LIMITING BOATS TO NOT MORE THAN 50 OR 100 PASSENGERS SO THAT THEY COULD BE EXPLAINED AS PURELY CLANDESTINE DEPARTURES. THE SYSTEM OF REGISTRATION AND PAYMENT OF (REDUCED) FEES WOULD BE MORE DISCREET. ONE OF THE REFUGEES RESCUED BY THE ''SIMBA'', QUOTING A SECOND-
HAND CONTACT WITH A PSB OFFICIAL, SAID THAT THERE HAD BEEN PLANS
FOR ORGANIZED SMALL BOAT DEPARTURES TO BE RESUMED ON 1 NOVEMBER: THAT THIS WAS SET BACK TO 1 DECEMBER AND HAS NOW BEEN SET FOR
1 JANUARY.
6. WE ARE MAKING USE OF THE ABOVE INFORMATION DISCREETLY WITH' THE LOCAL PRESS. MEANWHILE WE HAVE NO OBJECTION TO PARAS 2 TO 5
BEING PASSED TO OTHER GOVERNMENTS AND TO THE UNHCR.
CATER
FILES SEAD
HK & GD
UND
FED
EID
PUSD
OID IPD NEWS D
PS
PS/LPS
PS/MR BLAKER PS/PUS
MR CORTAZZI
MR STRATTON
LORD N G LENNOX MR. MURRAY
2
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ADDITIONAL DISTN.
BOAT PEOPLE