?
Timor. Mr Murray remarked that the Indonesians thought that they had better lines to Hanoi than to Peking and that China was the
main threat to South-East Asia. Mr Holbrooke agreed and added that the Indonesians also thought that their lines to Moscow were valuable.
7. There was no more urgent issue than to defuse the crisis on the frontier.
The period from December to March would be critical, in -view of the likelihood of clashes between the Heng Samrin and Pol Fot forces, with Thailand and Vietnam joining in later. The US had sent further military supplies to the Thai Army and had reassured the Thai Government about US obligations under the Manila Pact. Brezhnev and Pham Van Dong had said that Vietnam would not invade Thailand, and the Chinese had repeatedly said they would stand by Thailand.
8.
In Kriangsak's view, the Chinese would attack Vietnam again if the latter attacked Thailand. However,
However, the Chinese were not at this moment in any pre-attack posture. They seemed to be looking for alternatives to Pol Pot, while at the same time helping him to engage in protracted warfare against the Vietnamese. One alternative might be Sihanouk and in this context it was interesting that Holbrooke had ascertained from conversations in the camp at Sa Keow that Sihanouk's standing was unimpaired.
POSSIBLE POLITICAL SETTLEMENT
9.
The Americans had seen no reaction from either Peking or Hanoi during the summer. The Chinese thought a political settlement was out of the question while the Vietnamese remained in Cambodia.
The Vietnamese were not interested in a settlement and Brezhnev had
referred to the situation in Cambodia as 'irreversible' and 'a closed
book'. The Americans had concluded that there was no point in reverting to the idea of a political settlement before March/April 1980.
BRITISH HUMANITARIAN AID
10.
Mr Cortazzi summarised the United Kingdom position. He noted how close contact had been maintained with the ICRC and UNICEF and
that the British contribution had been prompt and effective (the provision of the Hercules aircraft to ferry supplies between Bangkok and Phnom Penh had been especially welcomed). We had given the Thais political support eg over Kriangsak's 19 October statement, the Perez de Cuellar mission and ASEAN's role at the United Nations.
/Sir Anthony
- 3- CONFIDENTIAL