CONFIDENTIAL
TIÁL
Important! This
old guard fought the Japanese, the Freud
the US and
more conditione)
Horby. Ju
2.
discontent was an internal matter, not, as today, a matter concerning the traditional enemy, China. The political control of the party today appears to be tight and effective. The social discipline and ability of the Vietnamese to tighten their belts and carry oh seem limitless. I do not even see the south, where one naturally looks for the first signs of disaffection, being able to make a fuss; and in fact the economic circumstances there, except for unemploy- ment in Ho Chi Minh City, are somewhat easier than in the north.
Leadership
19.
Nevertheless, there must soon be a change in leadership, if only because the old guard cannot carry on indefinitely. Tough though they are, some of them at least must be feeling the pace.
The average age of the five most important (Le Duan, Fham Van Dong, Le Duc Tho, General Giap, and Tran Quoc Hoan) is now well over seventy. The Foreign Minister is very ill: rumour has it that he is in Moscow with some degree of paralysis. Despite the impression gained during the summer that Pham Van Dong was getting very frail, he now appears to be rather well and fit. I saw him last Sunday after his return from Havana, and he appeared to be in far better shape than Nguyen Co Thach, the much younger State Secretary of Foreign Affairs, who accompanied him on his tour.
10. It can, I think, be taken for granted that there will be no sudden changing of the guard. Everything will be ordered so as to ensure continuity of policies and, as far as possible, of personalities. While I was away the question of a new constitution became once more an active subject. My guess is therefore that the adoption of a new constitution by the National Assembly, perhaps next December, may well be the occasion for at least a start in the process of phasing out some of the older personalities and phasing in some of the (relatively) younger men.
Refugees
11. Lastly, my impressions on the subject of refugees are pessimistic. In Vietnamese eyes the Geneva Conference ended with two related understandings: one, that Vietnam would for the moment turn off the refugee tap; the other, that UNHCR would develop an orderly, sizeable, and increasing departure rate of refugees. So far the UNHCR side of things has been a failure. Since the Geneva Conference, only about nine hundred people have left under UNHCR auspices. Of these some 230 were refugees who clambered aboard the Deminex oil rig and were subsequently accepted by Germany and France. The UNHCR office in Ho Chi Minh City has not yet opened.
CONFIDENTIAL
/A Belgian