CONFIDENTIAL
BRIEF NO 5:
UNHCR-VIETNAM AGREEMENT AND "ORDERLY DEPARTURE"
ESSENTIAL FACTS
Present Range
1.
At present only extends to identifiable family reunion cases
(20-30 thousand). There is no explanation of the range covered
by the term "other humanitarian cases" in Point 1 of the 30 May
agreement.
Expansion of Direct Departure Arrangements
2=
There is no reason in principle why, given suitable processing
procedures and a steady supply of immigrant places, direct departure
from Vietnam might not cover all who wish to leave. But this could
mean a total of 1-5 million and over say the next 5 years, by against
200,000 settled outside South East Asia since the immediate direct
departures in 1975 (and excluding those in China): with the present
rate of settlement is about 100,000 per 12 months, although new
pledges may double this.
Advantages
3. (i) end of deaths in small boats (277,000 arrivals since 1975 = c.
0.5 million lost en route)
(ii) gradual release of pressure on places of first asylum
(iii) adjustment of outflow of refugees to availability of resettle-
ment places
(iv) avoidance of need for processing centres
(v) removal of problems for ships concerned in rescues and their
flag states
(vi) depending on degree of UNHCR/ICRC activity in Vietnam, some
chance of limiting extortion by Vietnamese authorities and
various racketeers.
Dangers
4. (i) potential open ended
commitment to accept any designated by
Vietnam as superfluous or undesirable
(ii) possibility of encouraging establishment of large, world
community financed, holding camps in Vietnam (see Brief No 4)
(iii) risk of direct departures displacing those in first asylum
camps in settlement queue (orderly departure might have to be
deferred until clearance of existing camps).
CONFIDENTIAL
/Conclusions