have left and of those who went by sea it is estimated that up to 50% or more may have perished in the sea. This would leave a low figure of about 800,000 or an upper figure of about 1, 100, 000 still in south Vietnam. The Vietnamese are methodically milking them of their overseas remittances and assets. The Chinese use these to buy gold which they use to pay Vietnamese officials to leave and to buy boats. This exodus is being controlled at all stages by officials. When passengers are allocated to boats it is common for the boats to be approached before departure and for baggage, some food and water to be removed and additional passengers forced on board.
5
There are various estimates of the casualty rate in this human traffic. It ranges from 50% to 70%. As pressure to leave builds up, this casualty rate will rise due to lack of adequate preparation for the voyage, increased pirate activity etc. Assuming that 60% of those who set out fail to make any landfall, the total number of refugees likely to reach other countries in the region would be between 320,000 and 440, 000 or、 say about 400 000. Although boat refugees continue to head south from Vietnam, action by Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand and Philippines has made this direction less attractive in spite of the relative shortness of the trip. Thus, Hong Kong is likely to become increasingly the landfall for refugees so that unless international pressure stops Vietnam from trafficking in refugees perhaps half of the 400, 000 could reach Hong Kong.
Existing Policy
6
The existing policy is to allow refugees to be "landed" in Hong Kong temporarily on a guarantee from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. The number here has overwhelmed UNHCR resources and UNHCR's will either to process all the refugees or accommodate them. We have consistently represented the need to UNHCR Geneva to increase the permanent UNHCR staff here and to accept more refugees. We have only been partially successful. Although the number in UNHCR care has increased to 13, 000 on 5th June it is still less than one third of the total.
A
Accommodation
7
The provision of accommodation has been affected by UNHCR's reluctance to accept that its own estimates of likely arrivals were unrealistic. This has led to a grave shortage of accommodation financed by UNHCR. In these circumstances, the Administration, with the approval of the Finance Committee of the Legislative Council has been forced to take emergency measures to provide refugee accommodation. Details of the present position are set out in Annex A.
CONFIDENTIAL
機密
C.S. 166