CONFIDENTIAL
1. SCALE OF THE PROBLEM IN SOUTH EAST ASIA
Numbers
1.
There may still be over one million ethnic Chinese in
South Vietnam, and 20,000-30,000 in the North, whom it is the
Vietnamese Government's policy to get rid of.
2.
Additionally, many of the ethnic Vietnamese of the former
middle class in the South, whose means of livelihood have been
removed, and who face the stark alternative of being transferred
to a "New Economic Zone" will prefer to risk leaving by sea if the
can get the money to pay for the trip; many of them have relatives
abroad, who can make money available.
3.
It is impossible to guess how many Vietnamese will be able
to leave, but the figure could amount to hundreds of thousands.
3,000 people a day may now be leaving Vietnam on "official
auspices", over half of whom drown. Others try to leave
independently but risk interception by coastal patrols.
4.
5.
According to the UNHCR, 200,000 Indo-Chinese refugees have
been resettled in 31 countries since 1975, but 300,000 are still
in the region (an increase of 100,000 since 1 January). The UNHCR
is sending out 10,000 refugees a month for permanent resettlement.
In 1978, 53,000 resettlement places were available; partly as
a result of consultations in December, there are now 125,000 places
(10,000 a month).
6. The figure in Note No 5 of 200,000 Indo-Chinese refugees
awaiting resettlement in Thailand does not include the Cambodians
who cross and recross the Thai frontier in large numbers, and whom
the Thais now send back. If there is famine in Cambodia, there
CONFIDENTIAL
/may