(e) Option 5 As in Option 4 but modified to land refugees as illegal immigrants on a renewable one-year basis, with the proviso that they would be returned to Vietnam once the conditions there which had forced them to leave had changed. (Refugees with family reunion claims on third countries would still be able to pursue these through consular missions here).
(1)
(2)
The additional ädvantage over Option 4 is that
it might be a marginally increased deterrent to coming to Hong Kong.
The additional disadvantages are that
it would be premature in the light of the new British initiatives, and
it may alienate the UNHCR and other agencies.
Conclusion
13
It seems unlikely that any clear sign will occur to indicate whether the stage has been reached when any change in existing policy needs to be made because of the number of refugees reaching Hong Kong. However, if the arrivals in June total 20,000 30,000 without any significant increase in the offer of resettlement places, then it seems probable that the estimates and assessments made in paragraph 2 to 5 are beginning to be borne out by the facts.
14
Even so it seems clear that at some stage, some change or modification of policy towards Vietnamese refugees will be forced on us by sheer numbers. The procedure of accepting them as refugees and expanding facilities for their exclusive use poses a substantial drain on resources, especially as it seems inevitable that a large proportion of the refugees will be here for a long time.
15
Although it would be attractive to make a decision to change policy now so that we had more time in which to implement it and to give ample warning to those still in Vietnam contemplating a journey to Hong Kong in the slim hope that thereby they might change their minds, in view of the international conference on refugees referred to in paragraph 10, it is the intention that the existing policy be maintained (provided circumstances allow this) for a further period, say up to the end of July. The position will then be reviewed in the light of the situation then prevailing including hopefully the results of the conference, if it is held. Honourable Members will be consulted again for advice on what our future policy should be. In the meantime, planning of accommodation is continuing on the assumption that there will be no change in policy because of the lead-time which is necessary to bring camps into operation.
CONFIDENTIAL