Annex A also shows accommodation which will come on stream, and further proposals not yet approved, up to the end of the year. Annex B shows the likely demand and shortfalls each month until the end of the year. Honourable Members will note that there is a rough balance between the number of refugees and the accommodation available or coming on stream in June, but if the number of refugee arrivals were, say, to average 1, 000 a day then there will be an increasing problem of accommodation from late June onwards even if the present proposals are approved and can be implemented as scheduled. Preliminary assessments show that the shortfall over the next three months could be met by leasing two additonal factories in Tuen Mun but this could raise social and economic problems in that area.
9
So far no agreement has emerged from discussions with UNHCR whether it will contribute to the capital cost or the part it will play in management or in meeting the maintenance costs. Discussions with UNHCR are continuing.
Resettlement Prospects
10
As a result of the recent wave of refugees and because of the Sibonga case, HMG has focused on the refugee situation in Hong Kong. This has resulted in intense diplomatic pressure aimed to achieve three ends:
(a) to bring pressure on the Vietnamese Government to
cease its traffic in refugees,
(b) an increase in resettlement offers, and
(c) proposing an early meeting under UN auspices to
consider the action which should be taken to resolve the problem.
It is too early to say what effect these will have but on past performance (a) is not very likely to be successful, and (b) seems unlikely to do more than increase the rate of departures slightly: without being unduly pessimistic it is not likely to increase by more than, say, 1, 000 a month. Nor does it seem likely that the De Haan scheme for orderly departures from Vietnam under UNHCR auspices will greatly affect the rate of outflow to the region. The Secretary General of the United Nations has said that he is ready in princple to consider the idea of convening a special conference. It remains to be seen what the reaction will be. Meanwhile no date or agenda has been proposed.
CONFIDENTIAL