NOTE FOR EXECUTIVE COUNCIL
VIETNA MESE REFUGEES
Background
At the end of May 1979, there were over 41,000 Vietnamese refugees in Hong Kong. During the first five months of the year, the monthly rate of arrivals had risen from about 5, 000 in January to 18,700 in May. From 24th May to 7th June the daily arrivals have averaged 1,080. Over the same five months the departure rate of refugees for resettlement has been about 650 per month with only one month when over 1,000 left. In May there was a reduction to 500 and unless there is an upturn in departures in future it seems unlikely that more than 500 a month will leave in the next four months.
Likely number of refugees to reach Hong Kong
2
For planning purposes and on the information available in the past it had been assumed that 10, 000 were likely to arrive each month during the summer months and 3, 000 per month at other times. In view of the influx in May and from an assessment made by HM Ambassador in Hanoi, it is necessary to revise these figures against the background that, whatever they may say publicly and at international meetings, the Vietnamese are determined to rid their country of ethnic Chinese whom they regard as a fifth column and consuming scarce resources. Moreover they plan to do so as soon as possible. There is no corresponding plan to put pressure on the ethnic Vietnamese population though some are fleeing from the country.
3
In north Vietnam the population of ethnic Chinese was estimated to be about 250,000 in 1978. 170,000 crossed the land border into China in 1978 and have settled there. The Chinese authorities claim that there are about 200,000 230, 000 Vietnamese in China (some of whom have come from the south). About 18,000 made their way along the coast and reached Hong Kong this year. Of the remainder still in Vietnam, perhaps 20,000 will choose to remain there, leaving something between 10, 000 - 40,000 who may try to leave and reach here.
4
For south Vietnam it is not easy to obtain reliable figures of the number of ethnic Chinese but it is usually accepted that before the 1978 outflow commenced, there were about 14 million. Of these 300,000
CONFIDENTIAL