CONFIDENTIAL
FAR MORE CONSISTENT WITH WHAT IS NOW KNOWN IS THE ASSESSMENT THAT THE VIETNAMESE AUTHORITIES REGARD THEIR ETHNIC-CHINESE CITIZENS
AS A COMMODITY USELESS AND EVEN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TO THEMSELVES
INTERNALLY IN POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, ETHNIC, IDDEOLOGICAL AND SECURITY TERMS - BUT WITH AN EXPORT VALUE WHICH, LIKE THAT OF A SEAM OF ANTHRACITE, SHOULD BE EXPPLLOITED UNTIL THERE'S NO MORE IN THE SEAM WORTH HACKING OUT.
THE SEAM HAS NOT RUN OUT YET, BY ANY MEANS. THERE MAY BE ONLY ABOUT 50,000 ETHNIC CHINESE LEFT IN THE NORTH, OUT OF THE 250,000
ESTIMATED TO BE THERE IN EARLY 1978. BUT IN THE SOUTH, PROBABLY SOMETHING LIKE A MILLION REMAIN IN THE CHO LON AREA OF HO CHI
MINH CITY, EVEN THOUGH 300,000 HAVE FLED SINCE 1975.
THE 'GOING PRICE'', THOUGH IT FLUCTUATES CONSIDERABLY, IS STILL RECKONED TO BE ON AVERAGE TEN TAELS OF GOLD PER HEAD (ABOUT U.S DOLLARS 3253 ON THE INTERNATIONAL MARKET) SEMI-COLON SO THE POTENTIAL RESIDUE OF EXPORT INCOME COULD BE AS MUCH AS AROUND U.S DOLLARS 3,400 MILLION.
''GOING'' IS PRICED, WITHOUT REFERENCE TO ARRIVAL. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE OF THAT. WHAT THE REFUGEE IS REALLY BUYING IS, ACCORDING
TO CURRENT ESTIMATES, A THIRTY PERCENT CHANCE OF MAKING IT TO HAVEN ALONG WITH THE SEVENTY PERCENT CHANCE OF FATTENING A SECOND SERIES OF SHARKS, THE ONES IN THE SEA.
THE ODDS AGAINST SAFE ARRIVAL HAVE LENGTHENED
da
LATE LAST YEAR THEY
WERE PUT AT FIFTY/FIFTY. BUT THAT CAN BE OF NO CONCERN TO THE SHIPPERS OR THE ''MINERS' OF THE ''SEAM''. AFTER ALL, THE STUFF
IS PAID FOR, BY THE COMMODITY ITSELF, AT SOURCE SEMI-COLON AND SO LOSSES IN TRANSIT ARE OF NO CONSEQUENCE AT ALL!
MACLEHOSE
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Mr Stitt, SEAD
VIETNAMESE REFUGEES