CONFIDENTIAL
DEFENSIVE SPEAKING NOTES
SECRETARY OF STATE'S MEETING WITH MR VANCE: 21 MAY
Brief No_28÷ INDO-CHINA ESPECIALLY VIETNAM/CAMBODIA
[1. The Vietnamese are locked in a confrontation with China from which the Chinese are unlikely to let them extricate themselves.]
2. Vietnam's action in Cambodia was the trigger for China's hostilities but we see no prospect of the Vietnamese being pre- pared to relax their grip. In any case this is only one element of the age-Long China/Vietnam antiphathies.
3. We do not think that the major Communist powers will agree to attend an international conference providing for the neutralisation of Cambodia - although such a solution would
recommend itself to countries in South-East Asia.
4.
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We, and our colleagues among the European Community, have. no intention of recognising the Heng Samrin regime which depends on the Vietnamese Army for its survival.
5.
Soviet naval and air movements, using Vietnamese facilities have been a cheap means for the Russians to demonstrate support
for Vietnam against China. But another Chinese attack, possibly on
a larger scale, could force the Russians to give more direct support to the Vietnamese.
6. In present circumstances we see no likelihood of Western
aid.
investment being attracted to Vietnam and no justification for further Such resources as were provided would lessen the burden on the Russians of supporting their Vietnamese ally. Vietnam's appalling human rights record would make such aid unacceptable to the public here.
CONFIDENTIAL