making very rapid progress and it is not clear whether in any event it will offer any relief to Hong Kong. Pressure is being put upon the Vietnamese Government to change its policy towards the uncontrolled emigration of its people. No effective lever to achieve this seems to exist, but even so opinion in the region may influence that Government to some extent. There has also been a recent visit to Vietnam by the Deputy High Commissioner of the UNHCR and an account of his discussions is awaited. Despite this and the other measures referred to above it seems likely that the outflow of refugees from Vietnam will continue and probably accelerate.
5
Meanwhile, every effort is being, and will continue to be, made to prevent refugees coming to Hong Kong. Also preemptive measures, such as informing the Vietnamese authorities that vessels suspected of being involved in trafficking refugees have sailed towards the Vietnamese coast, have been taken with some apparent success. Surveillance of waters close to Hong Kong continues, as does the regular patrolling of our approaches.
6
Nevertheless, it is probable that refugees, particularly those in small boats, will reach Hong Kong and is impossible to make an accurate assessment of the numbers who will arrive in the next few months. For planning purposes however, it would be wise to assume that we could face an influx at a rate of 10, 000 a month. It could be considerably higher.
7
Efforts continue to be made through UNHCR and direct to encourage Third Countries to speed up the acceptance of refugees for resettlement and also for these and other countries, such as those in South America, to increase their offers of resettlement places. If successful, these measures will help. But it is unlikely that they will afford substantial relief over the next few months. The best estimate for the first half of the year is 5.000, and on current offers about 3, 500 for the second half. We still however continue our efforts to increase the figure and the passage of legislation in the USA in April, which would have the effect of doubling the number of refugees world-wide which that country would accept i. e. up to 80, 000 per annum, should assist.
Refugee Accommodation
Existing. On 28th February there were 15, 266 refugees in Hong Kong. Details are set out in Annex A.
8
A
CONFIDENTIAL #