CONFIDENTIAL
9.
(a) It would relieve the burden on ports in South-East Asia
and reduce some of the internal political pressures
building up in Malaysia and elsewhere in the region as a result of the huge refugee presence;
(b) It could save some lives, since, instead of pushing "small
boat" refugees back out to sea, countries could ask UNHCR to transport them to the island processing centre if the refugees' own craft were incapable of taking them there;
(c) UK support for the proposal could gain us considerable
credit among ASEAN countries, who would see this as a move to help them in their hour of need;
(a) Our support for the proposal, for which we might be able
to provide some financial aid, would be seen (in the short-term at least) as an example of positive thinking about the problem, responding to the demands of public opinion for action to find solutions. (We must expect continued public concern about the problem, with consequent pressure on Ministers.)
In the department's view, however, the arguments against the
proposal are overriding:
(a)
It could encourage an even greater outflow from Vietnam. Whatever the temporary relief of pressure on eg Hong Kong and Malaysia, the international community would be faced with an even vaster resettlement problem in the long run.
(b) The centre would probably very soon become overcrowded
(c)
and another island would be needed; then, possibly, yet another. There may be about 1 million ethnic Chinese in Vietnam, plus many ethnic Vietnamese who would leave the country if they could;
The major countries of resettlement would feel less under
pressure to accept more refugees than at present, since one motive in offering resettlement places now is to help friendly countries to cope with their refugee burdens;
/Nor
CONET TENTA I