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197
THICK 12/1.
GRS 300
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IND
FM CANBERRA 050515Z APR 79
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELEGRAM NUMBER 192 OF 5 APRIL
ا
6 APR 1979
NO. 51
No 176.4 X
THY Taken
INFO SAVING HONG KONG (GOVERNOR AND BCARFE), BANGKOK, KUALA LUMPUR, SINGAPORE, MANILA, JAKARTA, WELLINGTON,
YOUR TELEGRAM NUMBER 123 OF 3 APRIL: UK/AUSTRALIA AIR SERVICES 1. IN ROWLAND'S ABSENCE ON 3 WEEKS' LEAVE COUNSELLOR (ECONOMIC) DISCUSSED THIS WITH RAINBIRD (DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT) TODAY. RAINBID EXPLAINED THAT THE AUSTRALIANS' INABILITY AT THE JAKARTA MEETING TO GET ASEAN OFFICIALS TO PRODUCE A CONSIDERED ANALYSIS HAD FORCED THEM TO CARRY OUT THIS TASK OVERNIGHT. TAKING AS THEIR BASIS THE AUSTRALIAN-ASEAN FARES AND THE STOPOVER FARES WHICH THEY HAD PRODUCED THE AUSTRALIANS PRODUCED REVISED ESTIMATES OF THE LIKELY AUSTRALIAN- ASEAN TRAFFIC. WHILST THESE HAD NOT LED TO ANY SIGNIFICANT REVISION OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES OF TRAFFIC BETWEEN AUSTRALIA AND 4 ASEAN COUNTRIES, THE CALCULATIONS HAD SUGGESTED A SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCE IN THE ORIGINAL ASSESSMENT OF SINGAPORE-AUSTRALIA TRAFFIC. (SEE PARAGRAPH 7 (V) OF MY TELEGRAM NUMBER 182 OF 27 MARCH). RAINBIRD EXPLAINED THAT THEY HAD NOT YET GONE INTO THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
THE ESTIMATED CAPACITY BUT CONFIRMED THAT THE EXISTING SIA CAPACITY
INTO AUSTRALIA WOULD NOT BE REDUCED MORE THAN AT THE MARGINS.
CURRENTLY SIA OPERATE A DAILY SERVICE WHICH ENCOMPASSES BOTH
SYDNEY AND MELBOURNE AND THE AUSTRALIANS ARE CONTEMPLATING SOME CHANGE IN THIS. HOWEVER, A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF WORK REMAINS TO BE DONE AND THIS HAS NOT, REPEAT NOT, BEEN DISCUSSED WITH
SINGAPORE.
2. IT IS NOT CLEAR TO RAINBIRD OR US HOW PERMISSION FOR SIA TO
OPERATE BROADLY THE SAME CAPACITY SINGAPORE-AUSTRALIA WOULD GIVE THEM
LEVERAGE TO GET ACCESS TO THE END-TO-END TRAFFIC.
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/3.RAINBIRD