760
GRS600
CONFIDENTIAL
PEKING 040907
ROUTINE FCO
CONFIDENTIAL
Hkk 184/1
TELEGRAM NUMBER 17 OF 4 JANUARY.
INFO ROUTINE HONG KONG AND WASHINGTON.
RECEIVED IN REGATRY NO. 51 DA
© JAN 1979
IND
جند
PA
سد
Lege
Actiub an
1977 WASHINGTON TELNO ALLOT 288 AND YOUR TELNO TOFASHINGTON BY
AIR SERVICES. 1. IT IS CLEAR ALSO FROM OUR CONTACTS WITH UBLO THAT THE POSS-
1BILITY OF OPERATING AIR SERVICES BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES
AND THE PRC IS A LIVE ISSUE FOLLOWING NORMALISATION. AMERICAN OFFICIALS CLAIM TO BE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE CHANCES OF AGREE- MENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE LEGAL OBSTACLES WHICH OPPONENTS OF NORMALISATION MIGHT THROW UP. BUT THEY HAVE EXPRESSED HOPES THAT SERVICES MIGHT BE ABLE TO START EVEN BEFORE FORMAL AGREEMENT IN THE FORM OF CHARTER OR
NON-SCHEDULED SERVICES BY PANAM.
2. WE ARE NOT AWARE OF THE PRESENT PATERN OF FLIGHTS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND TAIWAN, BUT WE VERY MUCH DOUBT WHETHER THE CHINESE WILL ALLOW EVEN CHARTER FLIGHTS UNTIL THE FORMAL ARRANGEMENTS WITH TAIWAN HAVE BEEN ENDED. IN ADDITION TO YOUR OWN OBJECTIONS TO AMERICAN SERVICES THROUGH HONG KONG TO CHINA REFERRED TO IN YOU TUR, THE CHINESE MIGHT ALSO HAVE VIEWS ON WHETHER FLIGHTS SHOULD SERVE PEKING OR OTHER POINTS IN CHINA VIA HONG KONG. WHETHER AMERICAN FLIGHTS WERE INTENDED TO COME VIA HONG KONG OR NOT, THE CHINESE WOULD PRESUMABLY SEEK DECLARATIONS AT LEAST AS STRINGENT AS THOSE DEMANDED OF THE JAPANESE OR OURSELVES ABOUT CONTINUED FLIGHTS TO TAIWAN. THE AMERICANS WOULD PRESUMABLY NOT BE SO CONCERNED ABOUT THE COMMERCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF A SUSPENSION OF USA/TAIWAN SERVICES AS THE JAPANESE WERE OR WE ARE. BUT A FURTHER LOOSENING OF TIES MIGHT BE DIFFICULT POLITICALLY, GIVEN THE ASSURANCES PRESIDENT CARTER HAS GIVEN AND THE SUPPORT
FOR TAIWAN IN THE US.
3. ONE WAY OR ANOTHER, HOWEVER, THERE IS CLEARLY A DANGER OF OUR BEING LEFT BEHIND IN THE EUPHORIA FOLLOWING NORMALISATION.
WE REMINDED THE MFA LAST WEEK OF OUR WISH TO MOVE FORWARD TO
AN ASA. FIRST SECRETARY WAS TOLD THAT OUR PROPOSED
STATEMENT WAS STILL RECEIVING CAREFUL CONSIDERATION BY THE APPRO-
PRIATE DEPARTMENTS AND THAT A RESPONSE WOULD SOON BE FORTH-
COMING. THE MFA CLAIMED THAT THEY HOPED ANDOQELIEVED THAT AN
AGREED SOLUTION TO THE POLITICAL PROBLEM COULD AT LEAST BE REACHED BEFORE THE PRESENT ARRANGEMENTS FOR HONG KONG/GUANGZHOU (CANTON)
FLIGHTS EXPIRES IN EARLY MARCH. THIS IS AT LEAST MODERATELY
ENCOURAGING.
CONFIDENTIAL
14.