Hong Kong - Tsuen Wan
An increase from 404 to $1.50 is proposed. The magnitude of the increase is to bring this rate into line with cross harbour rates, but in more than one step, as an immediate increase to $2.50 is considered undesirable.
Financial forecast for 1979 and 1980
23
The projected financial performance of HYF, as already o noted, is included in Annex C. In making these forecasts, the following major assumptions were made:
(a)
1979 Passenger Levels
(b)
(c)
Without the proposed increases, passenger levels
would increase by 7% on Cross Harbour Services, and by 10% on Outlying District Services.
Passenger Resistance
Passenger resistance has been estimated as being 5%, that is to say it is assumed that 5% of the existing passengers will cease using ferries if the proposed increases are approved. It should be noted that the Company suggested originally a figure of 10% for Cross Harbour Services.
Category 2 and 5 Dangerous Goods Vehicles For 1980, an average of 90 vehicles a day has been assumed.
(d)
Fuel Costs
(e)
The 1980 figures assume an increase of 25% on existing fuel prices, currently $4.20 per gallon but it must be accepted that this is pure speculation.
Passenger and Vehicle Growth
The forecast for 1980 incorporates the assumptions that:
(a)
(b)
(c)
Cross Harbour passengers would increase by 5% (were it not for the opening of the MTR); Outlying District Services will increase by 5%; Vehicular Ferry Revenue (other than Dangerous Goods Services) will grow by 2%.
CONFIDENTIAL #2