NNNN
ZCZC LTX245 261225 DXD141 YY WX
16
YAX565 26-1154 YHE536
PROMONGAID LONDON ELEVEN:
GIS 536/79 · (ADD)
OUR FRIENDS IN LONDON AT THE FOREIGN OFFICE WILL NO DOUBT REMIND US THAT BOTH MR DENG XIAOPING AND CHAIRMAN HUA HIMSELF HAVE TOLD INVESTORS AND BUSINESSMEN WHO MAY BE WORRIED ABOUT THE LEASE, DUE TO EXPIRE IN 18 YEARS, THAT THEY CAN PUT THEIR HEARTS AT REST. SINCE WHEN HAS ANY COMMERCIAL DOCUMENT INCLUDED THAT KIND OF AN ASSURANCE IN ITS SMALL PRINT AND HOW MANY SHAREHOLDERS ARE LIKELY TO BE CONVINCED OF THE LONG-TERM SECURITY OF THEIR CAPITAL?
AND THE PROBLEM GROWS WITH EACH PASSING YEAR, HONGKONG CAN NOW OFFER LEGAL SECURITY FOR LOANS FOR 18 YEARS, NEXT YEAR IT WILL BE 17, THE YEAR AFTER, 16 AND SO ON. AFTER THAT LONG-TERM AMORTISATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT AND ALTHOUGH PROPERTY SPECULATORS WHO AIM TO RECOVER THEIR CAPITAL IN FIVE TO SIX YEARS MAY BE UNMOVED BY THE TICKING CLOCK NO BIG INVESTOR IS GOING TO RISK HIS CAPITAL WITHOUT A GREAT DEAL MORE SECURITY THAN THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT HAS SO FAR GIVEN.
INDEED THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT SEEMS TO BE INCREASINGLY INTERESTED IN ENCOURAGING INVESTORS TO PLACE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN CHINA ITSELF AS A PLACE FOR DEVELOPMENT THAN HONGKONG --AND NO ONE CAN BLAME THEM FOR THAT. BUT HONGKONG IS STILL A CENTRE OF SPECIAL INTEREST TO PEKING AND GUANGDONG. IT STILL PROVIDES CHINA WITH MORE THAN 10 BILLION DOLLARS OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE IN TERMS OF ITS NET TRADE BALANCE, A FIGURE THAT GROWS EACH YEAR. MORE==.
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ZCZC LTX247 261223 DXC988
YY TWX
YCX041 25-1157 YHE537
1640: PROHONGAID LONDON TWELVE:
GIS 536/79 (ADD)
IT STILL PROVIDES A BANKING AND COMMERCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO EMULATE AT ANY TIME. IT STILL PROVIDES CHINA WITH A SPRINGBOARD TO THE WORLD IN COMMERCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEALINGS WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO QUANTIFY IN MONEY TERMS. IF HONGKONG IS ALLOWED OR ENCOURAGED TO DECLINE BECAUSE OF A FAILURE ON PEKING'S PART TO SPELL OUT WHAT SORT OF FUTURE IS LIKELY AFTER . 1997, THIS CAN ONLY DEAL A SEVERE BLOW TO CHINA'S PLANS FOR
MODERNISATION. AND IT CAN ONLY SERIOUSLY DIMINISH THE PART THAT BRITAIN CAN PLAY IN CHINA'S DEVELOPMENT IN THE YEARS AHEAD.
SO WHY IS THE FUTURE OF HONGKONG NOT ON MRS THATCHER'S AGENDA? CHAIRMAN HUA MAY WELL PLEAD THAT WITH 18 YEARS TO GO NO CHINESE STATESMEN CAN POSSIBLY MAKE A COMMITMENT SO FAR AHEAD. THEY WOULD FAR. RATHER KEEP THEIR OPTIONS OPEN. YET THEY MUST BE MADE AWARE THAT AS FAR AS BUSINESSMEN ARE CONCERNED, THE COUNTDOWN HAS BEGUN AND WITH EACH PASSING YEAR HONGKONG WILL BE LESS AND LESS ATTRACTIVE TO THE MAJOR INVESTOR, LOCAL AND OVERSEAS.
AND IF THEY DO NOTHING ELSE THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO EXPLORE THE OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONTINUING HONGKONG AS AN INDEPENDENT ENTITY INDEFINITELY, NOT JUST TO SERVE BRITAIN'S AND HONGKONG'S INTERESTS, BUT CHINA'S. OUR CONCERN IS ALSO FOR THE PEOPLE OF HONGKONG WHO ARE NOT YET READY TO FACE UP TO ABSORPTION 3Y CHINA, THOUGH THEY MIGHT BE ONE DAY WHEN ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CONDITIONS IN THE COUNTRY OFFER GREATER ATTRACTION THAN THEY DO TODAY.
MORE ==