I don't think солашадиц
SECRET
-3-
•
future would become more acceptable if hypothetically Taiwan had reached some accommodation with the Ma in land and had been allowed a substantial degree of genuine and lasting autonomy. But Deng obviously believes that such a statement of policy now would reassure Hong Kong, whereas I do not think it would (though see para 12(b)).
8. About how damaging it might be I am not yet clear. People will remember what a special status did for Tibet. Moreover the value of an economic assurance cannot be
There separated from an economy's political framework. are memories of the swings of the political pendulum in China, and it is far from accepted here that political stability has been achieved. Much would depend on how far in the future a political change was envisaged.
3
9. In this concept for Hong Kong of a specially guaranteed status under Chinese sovereignty and new
(undefined) political arrangements, for the first time Deng couples Hong Kong with Taiwan. Three problems result from this concept and this coupling with Taiwan. Problem No 1 is that in making what he believes to be reassuring statements about Taiwan, and I have no doubt he will make many over the months ahead, he may throw in Hong Kong for good measure and cause uncertainty here.
10. Problem No 2 is that if we go ahead over the leases,
if he has not already Deng may be moved to make public done so - his concept of Hong Kong's future, either because he does not realise it would undo the purpose of our actim, or alternatively because he thinks that whatever the outcome it is right that the position should be on public record.
11. Problem No 3 arises from the objection Deng raised during our meeting to our use of the phrase "as long as
This raises two British administration continues difficulties:
(1) He is recorded as objecting to it
(11)
admittedly probably under a misapprehension that we were talking about a statement with which China would be associated, and admittedly we could argue that the objection seemed to have been withdrawn. But the record is there for Chinese officialdom to see.
Against the background of an assurance from the Chinese that investment will be respected by them if and when there is a political change,
SECRET
/ our