Mr Samuel (FED)
CONFIDENTIAL
CC
Private Secretary
PS/Lord Goronwy-Roberts PS/PUS
Mr Murray
Mr McLaren (HKGD)
Mr Scott (EESD)
BRITISH POLICY TOWARDS CHINA
Thank you for copying to me your draft reply to Mr Cradock's despatch of 18 December.
2. I see that, on balance, you agree with the analysis in Mr Cradock's paragraphs 15 and 16, that is, that "the pot is not going to boil over". Though not an expert, I am not sure that I share this optimism. The current Western enthusiasm for China (mingled with relief) resembles that which swept the West after the death of Stalin: the same feeling that something fundamental had changed for the better, the same hope of immense commercial pickings. But nations change slowly, if at all: Russia has remained Russia, even if rather less unpleasant than in Stalin's day. I am therefore convinced by the arguments earlier in Mr Cradock's despatch (paragraph 10): that China is without any tradition of political flexibility or moderation. Progress has always been made in a series of zigs and zags. There is no obvious reason why this should not continue. Even if Deng and Hua keep in charge (and keep in with each other!), China's long-term interests do not coincide with our own and may well threaten them. As Sir R Hibbert says (his minute of 19 January),
/Partial with a population of 900 million/modernisation would be
destabilising for China while successful modernisation, if it could be achieved in our lifetime, could well be destabilising for the world: (our present problems with Japanese/Korean/Taiwanese exports multiplied tenfold - and an immovable object in the path of development for other Third World aspirants).
3. That said, what should we do about it? I agree with your general line. Certainly we should make the most of any commercial opportunities, while keeping an ear open for Soviet growls and an eye on the Chinese ready money. In any case:
(a) we could not stop the China stampede even if we wanted to, so we might as well profit by it (Mao doubtless had a colourful saying for it);
(b) insofar as we can influence the Chinese in their internal and external policies, this is the only way to go about it.
↑
14.
-
CONFIDENTIAL
Page 165Page 166