...
SECRET
2
Page 2 of 3 pages
4.
Continuing police action both in Hong Kong and Singapore has broken up a number of syndicates of overseas Chinese organising traffic using large ships. Ships such as the WINGFU, RITAPOINT, SEASTAR, TAILIAT, TONAN MARU and TOMI MARU No. 11 are now considered unlikely to pick up refugees. Other syndicates are being watched and more than twenty agents acting as intermediaries between relatives in Hong Kong or the USA and persons wishing to leave Vietnam have been warned by the Hong Kong Police of the risk of prosecution if they knowingly finance illegal immigration into Hong Kong.
5.
Hong Kong, although it has a slower oversea resettlement rate than ASEAN countries, is now the only affected territory in Asia which has not publicly stated that it will refuse to accept refugees, This is well known in Vietnam as a result of overseas broadcasts, as is the account of the SKYLUCK whose passengers were finally allowed to remain on land after their vessel had been beached following the severing of the anchor chain,
6.
Except for large ships and bigger motorised boats, most boats coming to Hong Kong from Vietnam are small and hug the coast. There are however three reports of small boats and their passengers being carried "pick-a-back" by larger ships and disembarked at sea near Macau.
Assessment
7.
Despite world-wide condemnation, the Vietnamese Government shows no convincing indication of a genuine change in its policies but for presentational purposes it may temporarily slow down or halt the departure rate prior to the international conference on refugees. The recent arrest of a Greek ship, the Nikitas F, and of two German ships for attempting to pick up refugees may be part of a propaganda counter-attack.
8.
It is likely that the number of small boats coming from Southern Vietnam to Hong Kong, including specially constructed refugee vessels, will increase, due to the recent robust line taken by ASEAN countries. As most of the small boats from the South are motorised, they will be less affected by the monsoon. The outflow from the South together with those still to come from the North is expected to increase the arrival rate. The arrivals for June totalled a record 19,643.
9.
The risk of prosecution in Hong Kong and pressure on Hanoi may deter the organising syndicates and the Vietnamese Government from sending any further large ships to Hong Kong.
G.E. JIÞ
SECRET **
/However